The Strait of Hormuz closure is best understood as an inflation shock transmitted through energy logistics. The relevant issue is that usable supply has become harder to move and more expensive to deliver. Prices are set by accessible supply, and the closure has...
Since the onset of the March 2026 escalation in the Gulf/Iran conflict, markets have focused overwhelmingly on oil, with Brent pushing past $100 per barrel. Headlines on the war ending, extending and pausing have whipped futures up and down, and positioning reflects...
On April 17, markets briefly priced in peace. Iran had declared the Strait of Hormuz open, a Lebanon ceasefire had just started, and WTI dropped 6% in a day. Prediction markets gave a 97% chance the war would be over by December. The futures strip was falling toward...
Turnleaf’s Mexico CPI nowcast for May 2026 is 4.04 percent YoY, slightly below Banxico nowcast of 4.09 percent YoY. Figure 1 shows a softer near-term profile, with the model close to Banxico consensus at the start of the forecast horizon. The path does not stay flat,...
First the Philippines, now Thailand. Who falls next? We take a closer look at how the Iran oil shock is reshaping the 12-month inflation outlook across Asia, and why rising rice demand could further intensify upside risks. Thailand ran twelve consecutive months of...
Philippines inflation has become a test case for how rapidly an external supply shock can propagate through a domestic food system. The April print was a material upside surprise. Headline inflation rose to 7.2% from 4.1% in March, and the miss was not confined to...
