De la Espriella’s narrow runoff win prompted the market to price a more orthodox, pro-business stance. That meant a stronger peso and lower risk premia, with a chance of reopening investment sensitive sectors such as energy. The optimism runs up against a...
Every time I watch the FIFA World Cup, there’s always something that surprises me. I didn’t expect Japan to score against Brazil in the first half, nor did I expect Cape Verde to tie with Spain. When about 70,000 people flock to host cities like Kansas...
A developing El Niño is becoming an important force in the inflation outlook over the next year. By shifting global rainfall patterns, it can bring drought to some regions and heavy rain to others, with the greatest economic impact often felt through food production....
Today, the United States and Iran have signed a deal ending the war. Among the many points outlined in the agreement, the normalization of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, scheduled for tomorrow, is the most consequential for oil markets. Front-month futures fell...
Turnleaf reads the current inflation data as a test of duration. Fuel prices have lifted headline CPI, while core has stayed contained because energy prices have not remained elevated long enough to force broad repricing across non-energy goods and services. Current...
Over the past several months, Turnleaf has examined the inflationary impact of the Iran conflict across fuel, food and airline prices, as well as the intermediary inputs that compound price increases. We have seen these dynamics play clearly into our nowcasting...
