Empowering successful strategies for investing and trading
We offer accurate, 12-month forecasts for inflation across 35 countries (>90% of the global GDP and tradeable markets).
To do so, we combine alternative data and AI for time series using our proprietary software to help you reduce risk, increase P&L, and find new opportunities in emerging and developed markets.
With Turnleaf, you will…
Minimize Your Risk
Reduce uncertainty and guesswork from market conditions
Improve Your P&L
Gain an edge by consistently outperforming traditional forecasts
Find New Opportunities
Take a global perspective with a focus on both emerging and developing markets.
Stay Informed
Integrate real-time insights and adapt to fast-moving economic conditions.
Minimize Your Risk
Reduce uncertainty and guesswork from market conditions
Improve Your P&L
Gain an edge by consistently outperforming traditional forecasts
Find New Opportunities
Take a global perspective with a focus on both emerging and developing markets.
Stay Informed
Integrate real-time insights and adapt to fast-moving economic conditions.
Minimize Your Risk
Reduce uncertainty and guesswork from market conditions
Improve Your P&L
Gain an edge by consistently outperforming traditional forecasts
Find New Opportunities
Take a global perspective with a focus on both emerging and developing markets.
Stay Informed
Integrate real-time insights and adapt to fast-moving economic conditions.
Proud Partners Of
Who We Serve
We offer macro-economic forecasts purpose-built for traders who follow an agile, systematic approach — as well as discretionary traders who see value in bringing a data-driven “second opinion” to their analyses.
Our Unique Approach
Categories
Traditional Economists
Turnleaf Analytics
Data
Traditional Data sources widely used since the 50s
Traditional and alternative data sources
Models
Models from the 50s and/or expert judgement only
Time series with cutting-edge AI
Tech
Legacy tech with little computational capabilities
Highly scalable full-service software accessed through web or cloud API
Data
Traditional Economists
- Traditional Data sources widely used since the 50s
Turnleaf Analytics
- Traditional and alternative data sources
Models
Traditional Economists
- Models from the 50s and/or expert judgement only
Turnleaf Analytics
- Time series with cutting-edge AI
Tech
Traditional Economists
- Legacy tech with little computational capabilities
Turnleaf Analytics
- Highly scalable full-service software accessed through web or cloud API
How It Works
Alternative Data + Traditional Stack
- 5,000+ data points from 50+ premium sources
- Combines traditional financial and economic data with alternative sources including weather, traffic, news, and sentiment
AI for Time Series + Unique Algorithms
- One of the first to use AI for time series analysis based on proprietary algorithms
- Extracts features from unstructured data sources like image, text, sound, and spatial datasets
Proprietary Software + Engineering
- Top quantitative talent to build models
- Full, reliable infrastructure and pipelines applicable to many forecasting use cases deployed without building on your own
Examples of data we use
We make use of vast data sources of quantitative and alternative data, in order to bring the performance of our models into the Big Data Age.
Output, Production, Business Activity
Traditional
- Total Industrial Production
- Preliminary GDP
- Factory Orders, etc.
Alternative
- Air Pollutants & Air Quality & Rainfall
- Electricity Consumptions & Shortages
- Factory Capacity Utilisation
- Oil Rig Counts
- Natural Resources Stock levels (incl. injection & withdrawals)
Retail
Traditional
- Consumer Prices
- Personal Consumption Expenditure
- Retail Trade, etc.
Alternative
- Airport Arrivals and Departures
- Restaurant visits & reservations
- Ground, Sea & Air Traffic
- Entertainment ticket sales
- Overnight stays and expenditures
- Vehicle Registrations, etc.
Labour
Traditional
- Wage Changes
- Unemployment
- Job Openings & Labor Turnover , etc.
Alternative
- Online Job Adverts
- Slack labor statistics
Sentiment & Expectations
Traditional
- Manufacturing Confidence
- Consumer Confidence
- Import & Export Forecasts
Alternative
- News Sentiment
- Food
- Energy
- Communications
- Entertainment
- Housing
Money, Credit and Interest Rates
Traditional
- Producer Prices
- Capital Account Statistics
- National Balance Sheets
- Money Supply
- Debt Statistics
- Government Balance Statistics
- CPI
Geopolitical
Alternative
- Geopolitical Risk News
- World Trade Uncertainty
How We Mitigate Forecasting Challenges
No forecast is 100% accurate, but we take additional steps to move our products closer to perfection, and easier to derive value from
Bias
We sometimes get biased coefficients in our models that hide true causal impact, but this comes with the benefit of greater predictive performance
Data Complexity
We leverage a range of internal processes, tools, onboarding methods, and vendor agreements to ensure the effectiveness of our data sources
Interpretability
We prioritize interpretability in our results by leveraging SHAP and LIME methods to provide a clear understanding of the factors driving our forecasts
Continuous Improvement
We constantly train and improve our models to better capture the complex relationships underpinning the global economy
Sudden Changes
We provide explanatory notes and economic contextual narratives whenever we see an interesting change in a forecast for a given country
Communications
We provide attribution plots, mailing lists, and direct support to help our customers get the most out of their products
Products We Offer
Inflation Forecaster
Our flagship product- We follow a purely quantitative approach to deliver inflation forecasts with unparalleled accuracy and relevance across 35 countries — for up to 12 months in the future.
Fed Communications Index
Harnessing the power of NLP- We help you navigate the intricacies of monetary policy and predict future moves by meticulously classifying a wealth of Fed communications dating back to 1995.
Bespoke Forecasts
Custom Forecasts tailored to your needs- We can build custom forecasting products by applying our approach to different indicators based on client requests.