First the Philippines, now Thailand. Who falls next? We take a closer look at how the Iran oil shock is reshaping the 12-month inflation outlook across Asia, and why rising rice demand could further intensify upside risks. Thailand ran twelve consecutive months of...
Philippines inflation has become a test case for how rapidly an external supply shock can propagate through a domestic food system. The April print was a material upside surprise. Headline inflation rose to 7.2% from 4.1% in March, and the miss was not confined to...
Hungary’s inflation outlook over the next 12 months is increasingly shaped by a transition away from direct price controls toward a more mixed regime combining gradual liberalization and tax-based relief, alongside continued energy-market intervention linked to the...
The shock has already landed Despite conflicting announcements about whether the Strait of Hormuz may close, vessel traffic remains underwhelming and supply concerns persist. Even if the chokepoint reopens quickly, shipping backlogs would take time to clear, keeping...
Since the outbreak of the Hormuz conflict in early March 2026, media coverage has understandably centered on oil prices and their pass-through to fuel and transportation costs. Less attention has been paid to other commodities transiting the Strait, notably urea and...
To gauge how markets are pricing the durability of the current US-Iran ceasefire, we aggregated conflict resolution probabilities across four prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus, and Manifold Markets), encompassing over $470 million in total...
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