A developing El Niño is becoming an important force in the inflation outlook over the next year. By shifting global rainfall patterns, it can bring drought to some regions and heavy rain to others, with the greatest economic impact often felt through food production....
Today, the United States and Iran have signed a deal ending the war. Among the many points outlined in the agreement, the normalization of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, scheduled for tomorrow, is the most consequential for oil markets. Front-month futures fell...
Turnleaf reads the current inflation data as a test of duration. Fuel prices have lifted headline CPI, while core has stayed contained because energy prices have not remained elevated long enough to force broad repricing across non-energy goods and services. Current...
Over the past several months, Turnleaf has examined the inflationary impact of the Iran conflict across fuel, food and airline prices, as well as the intermediary inputs that compound price increases. We have seen these dynamics play clearly into our nowcasting...
The Strait of Hormuz closure is best understood as an inflation shock transmitted through energy logistics. The relevant issue is that usable supply has become harder to move and more expensive to deliver. Prices are set by accessible supply, and the closure has...
Since the onset of the March 2026 escalation in the Gulf/Iran conflict, markets have focused overwhelmingly on oil, with Brent pushing past $100 per barrel. Headlines on the war ending, extending and pausing have whipped futures up and down, and positioning reflects...
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