Turnleaf expects Chilean inflation to ease below the central bank’s 3% target in early 2025, driven by peso appreciation compressing import prices and subdued energy costs (Figure 1 – PAID). Despite elevated copper prices sustaining terms of trade, export...
The recent spike in natural gas futures reflects market expectations of future supply constraints. Unlike past volatility driven by weather alone, this increase stems from structural imbalance like growing LNG exports, surging electricity demand (especially from data...
Last month Turnleaf argued that Switzerland was escaping deflation but still stuck near 0% inflation over the next year, with any firming coming mainly from tax changes and services inflation, while a strong franc kept goods prices pressured. November’s 0.02%...
Reaching 3.8% YoY in October 2025, headline CPI is currently above both the RBA’s 2–3% target band and the market consensus forecast of 3.6% (ABS CPI October 2025). Turnleaf’s model projected 3.7% YoY, capturing the direction and approximate size of the...
In the past month Turnleaf’s 12-month inflation forecast for India has edged lower as the pace of food and energy price increases slowed. This moderation reflects seasonal dynamics and temporary declines in current market prices rather than any meaningful...
“Are you on mute?” is perhaps the most succinct catchphrase which most comprehensively describes the post-covid landscape of work. Yet, despite the plethora of video conferencing tools out there, there is still something to be said for being there in...
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