French consumer prices rose 3.0% YoY in September 2026, up from 2.4% in August and the highest reading since February 2024, according to the INSEE flash estimate of 30 September. The drivers behind that rise were already visible in our model before the release. In our...
Earlier in October I visited Malta. I had never been to Malta, but I found it to be a fascinating place. Sitting in a very strategic location in the Mediterranean, it has been ruled over by Greeks, Romans, Arabs, French and British amongst others. It is perhaps not...
With September inflation data now arriving, we can compare the realised outcomes with forecasts made at the end of March, a few weeks into the conflict with Iran. Our forecasts had already moved higher with energy prices, providing an early view of where inflation...
Euro area inflation rose to 3.2% YoY in August from 2.9% in July, with energy contributing 1.29 percentage points to the annual rate, according to Eurostat. The ECB’s September staff projections put the peak at 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and inflation at...
US airline fares rose 2.7% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 23.4% higher than a year earlier before adjustment. The increase was one of the services components behind a 0.3% MoM core CPI print, above the 0.2% consensus, and strengthened the case for a...
Six months after Iran began blocking the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026, the cost of many of the inputs that feed into food production has risen sharply, yet consumer food prices have barely responded. Urea, a key input for fertilisers, passed $850 a tonne in...
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