No region sits closer to the February 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz than Asia. On Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates, roughly four fifths of the crude that transited the strait before the closure was delivered to Asian markets, with China, India,...
It’s been exactly 13 years since I quit my last “proper” job at Nomura in FX to work independently, culminating in cofounding Turnleaf Analytics with Alexander Denev a few years ago to do economic forecasting. Each time I reach this anniversary, I write about what...
The 2026 oil shock has affected inflation very differently across Latin America. The same increase in global energy costs has passed through six different domestic transmission mechanisms (Figure 1). That divergence is already visible in the latest data. Headline...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the wider conflict involving Iran pushed regional fuel and gas costs sharply higher from March 2026. Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) entered that shock with different administered price regimes already in...
Since early March, the US-Iran conflict has disrupted Gulf oil supply, closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and taking Brent crude from roughly USD 70 in January to above USD 100 in April. A ceasefire returned prices to pre-war levels in June before a...
The new round of United States tariffs will not add materially to inflation. The 10% Section 122 surcharge lapses today, 24 July 2026, and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is finalising a Section 301 forced labour action to replace it at 10%...
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