On April 17, markets briefly priced in peace. Iran had declared the Strait of Hormuz open, a Lebanon ceasefire had just started, and WTI dropped 6% in a day. Prediction markets gave a 97% chance the war would be over by December. The futures strip was falling toward...
You always have choices. Should I order cheese in my burger? Should I choose the cheese or cream knafa? There are also additional choices, not immediately obvious from the menu. There might be ice cream on the menu, but you could have that with the knafa, rather than...
Turnleaf’s Mexico CPI nowcast for May 2026 is 4.04 percent YoY, slightly below Banxico nowcast of 4.09 percent YoY. Figure 1 shows a softer near-term profile, with the model close to Banxico consensus at the start of the forecast horizon. The path does not stay flat,...
First the Philippines, now Thailand. Who falls next? We take a closer look at how the Iran oil shock is reshaping the 12-month inflation outlook across Asia, and why rising rice demand could further intensify upside risks. Thailand ran twelve consecutive months of...
Philippines inflation has become a test case for how rapidly an external supply shock can propagate through a domestic food system. The April print was a material upside surprise. Headline inflation rose to 7.2% from 4.1% in March, and the miss was not confined to...
Hungary’s inflation outlook over the next 12 months is increasingly shaped by a transition away from direct price controls toward a more mixed regime combining gradual liberalization and tax-based relief, alongside continued energy-market intervention linked to the...
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