Within hours of the large-scale tariffs taking effect, the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause, replacing the full tariff package with a baseline 10% rate. China—among the first countries to respond with retaliatory tariffs—was excluded from this pause and...
The recent imposition of sweeping U.S. tariffs has triggered a sharp stock market selloff, erasing up to $2.5 trillion in market value. More importantly, this sell-off reflects rising expectations of inflation pressure and global recession risk. In response to this...
Yesterday, President Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, with higher rates targeted at countries running large trade surpluses with the U.S. Notably, Canada and Mexico are exempt from these new measures. For many analysts, the...
In recent forecasts, Turnleaf has observed an interesting trend in India’s inflation dynamics. While headline inflation has been trending downward, largely driven by a decrease in vegetable prices, core inflation—which excludes food and energy—has been rising (Figure...
Recent retail sales in Poland have come in below expectations (-0.5%YoY in February 2025), with a significant decline driven by vehicle sales, followed by reduced consumption in food and fuel. Our model incorporates factors that directly influence the underlying...
The tail of our inflation curve is currently driven by two key factors: U.S. tariffs set for April 2, 2025, and Plan Mexico, which aims to revitalize domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on cheap imports from Asia. These factors are creating upward price...
