China’s headline CPI rose to -0.3% YoY in September 2025, still capped by food deflation and soft energy prices. Core CPI printed 1.0% YoY, above headline but still subdued as goods disinflation and weak services demand restrain momentum. We expect Chinese New...
Core Goods and Core Services are steering U.S. inflation in the second half of 2025. According to Turnleaf’s U.S. inflation models, Core Goods will be driven by short-lived tariff effects and softer goods flow over the next three months, while Core Services dominates...
Turnleaf’s Oct 9, 2025 nowcast for September 2025 prints slightly higher than the Oct 1, 2025 weekly, reflecting a mix of policy and pricing signals that point to firmer levels over the next year (Figure 1 – available on Substack). The curve is tilted upward...
Consumers are waiting for something bad to happen. Industrial weakness and worries about the government dominate the story, and French households are preparing for the worst. As discussed in earlier posts, unemployment concerns are pushing precautionary saving higher...
Turnleaf expects Poland’s CPI to average around 3% YoY over the next 12 months. By 2026, the base effects from the 2024 energy surge will fade, leaving food and services as the primary inflation drivers (Figure 5 – paywall). Food prices are expected to remain...
Turnleaf’s Headline CPI YoY forecast for South Africa has been revised lower following the unexpected August 2025 print of 3.3% YoY. The shift downwards of the inflation curve is driven mainly by softer food inflation in the last print—down from 5.7% YoY in July to...
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