Over the past 24 hours, Israel’s strike on Iran has markedly increased upside risks to inflation in the country. Just as tariffs introduce additional costs to consumers, businesses tend to pass on the cost of war to consumers. The risk of cargo ships getting entangled...
Since the start of the year, housing market indicators have increasingly correlated with rising inflation pressures. Interestingly, Spain classifies mortgages as financial assets, excluding them from the CPI basket. Instead, tenant rents, a proxy reflecting potential...
Our United States CPI YoY, NSA model continues to flag two quiet but disinflationary forces: a moderate rise in unemployment and trends in disability-program flows. To qualify for Social-Security Disability Insurance, applicants must show their condition limits...
There’s just something about being in Geneva that makes you want to reduce tariffs on all Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Recently, the U.S. and China reached an agreement to cut tariffs on each other’s goods for the next 90 days. Trump followed up by confirming that...
On April 28, 2025, at approximately noon, I couldn’t send a message to a colleague. I thought there must have been a problem with my WIFI, until I realized that none of the lights were working either. Within an hour, thousands of confused employees walked out of their...
Based on recent weekly forecasts, Turnleaf is projecting deflation of -0.09%YoY in April 2025 as export growth is expected to contract and China begins to reorganize its economy to avoid the brunt of U.S. tariffs. Turnleaf’s China inflation 12-month inflation horizon...
