UK CPI for September 2025 declined to 3.8% YoY, falling below market expectations of 4.0% (vs. Turnleaf estimate of 3.94%). The decline was primarily driven by sustained lower food prices from August 2025 and reduced costs in the culture and recreation category....
Japan’s CPI over the next two months will be shaped by a mix of expiring and newly introduced subsidies. Over the past two years, national electricity and gas subsidies have played a key role in containing energy inflation, while Tokyo went further by introducing...
Turnleaf expects Australia’s 12-month inflation forecast path to remain close to the Reserve Bank’s upper bound 3% target range as stronger than expected demand continues to stimulate growth, petrol prices begin to increase as low energy base effects slip...
China’s headline CPI rose to -0.3% YoY in September 2025, still capped by food deflation and soft energy prices. Core CPI printed 1.0% YoY, above headline but still subdued as goods disinflation and weak services demand restrain momentum. We expect Chinese New...
Core Goods and Core Services are steering U.S. inflation in the second half of 2025. According to Turnleaf’s U.S. inflation models, Core Goods will be driven by short-lived tariff effects and softer goods flow over the next three months, while Core Services dominates...
Turnleaf’s Oct 9, 2025 nowcast for September 2025 prints slightly higher than the Oct 1, 2025 weekly, reflecting a mix of policy and pricing signals that point to firmer levels over the next year (Figure 1 – available on Substack). The curve is tilted upward...
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