The trajectory of Chinese inflation will largely depend on its sensitivity to U.S. tariffs and its ability to sustain domestic GDP growth through external demand, particularly from key partners like Germany. While U.S. tariffs on China present a challenge, our models...
Between mid-December 2024 and mid-February 2025, the Canadian government implemented a GST/HST tax holiday, exempting beverages, restaurants, children’s clothing and footwear, children’s diapers, children car seats, children’s toys, jigsaw puzzles, video...
Turnleaf’s latest data has pushed Turkey’s inflation outlook higher than consensus forecasts. There are multiple reasons for this which we will explain in this note. One of the reasons is the expanding liquidity for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by the...
The newly announced 25% tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum imports introduces cost pressures across global supply chains. However, the key question is not just how markets react, but how producers adjust their spending behavior in response to rising cost risks....
2025 Colombia CPI YoY Above Consensus Due to Global Inflation Pressures Turnleaf’s CPI YoY model projects Colombia inflation well above consensus 12 months out, as it more aggressively captures global inflation linkages, particularly through energy costs and external...
In our January 2025 YoY CPI forecast, we projected inflation at 4.57%, slightly above the realized 4.3%, yet outperforming consensus (4.71%)—even with our estimate released a full week ahead of the official print.The primary driver of disinflation in January was the...
