I recently attended the Neudata conference on alternative data in London. I had last gone quite a few years ago, and I was pleasantly surprised about how much bigger the event had become. Alternative data has become an important part of the financial services...
Yesterday, President Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, with higher rates targeted at countries running large trade surpluses with the U.S. Notably, Canada and Mexico are exempt from these new measures. For many analysts, the...
This issue aims to clarify several of Turnleaf’s and the market’s forecast deviations over the past few months. Below, we outline key insights and performance drivers across a selected group of countries. If you have any questions or would like to discuss further,...
In recent forecasts, Turnleaf has observed an interesting trend in India’s inflation dynamics. While headline inflation has been trending downward, largely driven by a decrease in vegetable prices, core inflation—which excludes food and energy—has been rising (Figure...
Recent retail sales in Poland have come in below expectations (-0.5%YoY in February 2025), with a significant decline driven by vehicle sales, followed by reduced consumption in food and fuel. Our model incorporates factors that directly influence the underlying...
The tail of our inflation curve is currently driven by two key factors: U.S. tariffs set for April 2, 2025, and Plan Mexico, which aims to revitalize domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on cheap imports from Asia. These factors are creating upward price...
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