Turnleaf is forecasting 2–2.5% headline inflation for the Eurozone in 2025, while core inflation is expected to decline through the end of the year towards 2% as momentum in wage growth slows and fiscal normalization settles. The uptick in inflation observed in...
When a new burger joint opens up, there’s often a buzz. Everyone (well, at least me) wants to try the new burger. Is it as good as it looks on Instagram? Or is it just style over substance, and simply an overpriced fast food place? This week, in the world of AI,...
I tweet a lot (from @saeedamenfx and at BlueSky at @saeedamenfx.bsky.social)! In amongst, the tweets about burgers, I tweet out a quant paper or link every day under the hashtag of #QuantLinkDay, mostly around FX, rates, economics, machine learning etc. Some are...
We recently had the last FOMC decision of 2024. Market l participants reacted to the hawkish tone including Powell’s comments that the Fed’s year-end inflation projection has “kind of fallen apart.”, as well as shifts in the dot plot. It is intuitive that what the Fed...
The Polish government’s decision to extend the cap on electricity prices at 500 PLN/MWh is a critical measure to limit inflationary pressures on households. To understand its implications, consider an average 3-person household with an annual electricity consumption...
At Turnleaf Analytics, leveraging our machine learning models, we project U.S. inflation to stabilize between 2–3% through 2025, shaped by the interplay of import inflation, expectations, and economic slack, especially with the possibility of new tariffs. Rising...
