Macroeconomic Insights: Mexico’s Inflation Path In Tariff Uncertainty Limbo

The tail of our inflation curve is currently driven by two key factors: U.S. tariffs set for April 2, 2025, and Plan Mexico, which aims to revitalize domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on cheap imports from Asia. These factors are creating upward price...

Macroeconomic Insights: How Germany’s Fiscal Stimulus Could Reshape Its Inflation Outlook

Amid shifting geopolitical tensions and the need to revitalise its economy, Germany is preparing for a massive fiscal stimulus that will allocate up to $1 trillion in defence and infrastructure spending over the next 12 years. This spending plan will require borrowing...

Emerging Markets: Turnleaf Discusses Impact on Hungary’s 10% Profit Margin Cap Restriction on Inflation

Policy: In Hungary, from March 17 to May 31, 2025, a 10% profit margin cap will be imposed on 30 essential products, limiting companies’ profits on these items. Small independent shops with net revenue below HUF 1 billion (approximately EUR 2.5 million) in 2023...

Macroeconomic Insights: U.S. Inflation is Coming, But Not Where You Expect

Since taking office, President Trump has aggressively worked to revitalize domestic manufacturing by focusing on the U.S. trade balance. A key part of this strategy has been threatening tariffs on countries like Canada and Mexico, which he accuses of unfair trade...

Macroeconomics Insights – Beyond Tariffs: How Uncertainty is Steering U.S. Inflation Expectations

When we forecast inflation, our goal is to account for as much explainable variation as possible, using available data and reasonable assumptions about how prices evolve. Indicators like softening unemployment or falling industrial production typically signal weaker...

Macroeconomic Insights: Tariffs, Manufacturing, and Mexico Inflation

This article marks the start of Turnleaf’s series on how U.S. tariffs shape inflation dynamics across Latin America (LATAM). Among the economies we monitor—Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile—most have witnessed upward shifts in their inflation trajectories. Mexico,...