At the start of 2025, tariffs posed a meaningful downside risk to Eurozone inflation. Yet Eurozone growth has proven more resilient than many expected. The potential loss of external demand from higher tariffs has been partly offset by dollar depreciation,...
Since May 2025, Peru’s inflation has been consistently undershooting the forecasts of the central bank and economists. Figure 1 shows successive BCRP forecast vintages for 2025–2027. Each vintage slopes up over the horizon, but the whole curve has shifted lower with...
For the past few months, we have seen our forecasts for the Philippines adjust upwards as the central bank pivots from inflation-defensive to disinflation-offensive. Our Long-Term Contribution Word Cloud (Figure 1) help us identify key trends in bank assets, food, and...
In Colombia, almost 17% of the consumer price basket are administratively set. This includes household public services, transport, fuel, and education fees. The legislation behind these prices is typically subjected to many draft iterations, which make policy...
Turnleaf expects Czech CPI to fall close to 2% YoY by the end of 2025 and then float back up towards 3% YoY through 2026. In the short term, our model places greater weight on cooling energy prices, especially Brent crude, which should continue to push inflation lower...
In Spain, it’s jamón. In Italy, Parmigiano Reggiano. In Japan, fresh fish. Every country has its culinary treasures, but when the prices of these beloved staples rise, the effects ripple through inflation metrics. Food is a cornerstone of the consumer basket...
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