Turnleaf reads the current inflation data as a test of duration. Fuel prices have lifted headline CPI, while core has stayed contained because energy prices have not remained elevated long enough to force broad repricing across non-energy goods and services. Current...
Over the past several months, Turnleaf has examined the inflationary impact of the Iran conflict across fuel, food and airline prices, as well as the intermediary inputs that compound price increases. We have seen these dynamics play clearly into our nowcasting...
The Strait of Hormuz closure is best understood as an inflation shock transmitted through energy logistics. The relevant issue is that usable supply has become harder to move and more expensive to deliver. Prices are set by accessible supply, and the closure has...
Since the onset of the March 2026 escalation in the Gulf/Iran conflict, markets have focused overwhelmingly on oil, with Brent pushing past $100 per barrel. Headlines on the war ending, extending and pausing have whipped futures up and down, and positioning reflects...
On April 17, markets briefly priced in peace. Iran had declared the Strait of Hormuz open, a Lebanon ceasefire had just started, and WTI dropped 6% in a day. Prediction markets gave a 97% chance the war would be over by December. The futures strip was falling toward...
Turnleaf’s Mexico CPI nowcast for May 2026 is 4.04 percent YoY, slightly below Banxico nowcast of 4.09 percent YoY. Figure 1 shows a softer near-term profile, with the model close to Banxico consensus at the start of the forecast horizon. The path does not stay flat,...
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