Macroeconomic Insights: Turkey CPI – Inflation Pinned in Gold

Macroeconomic Insights: Turkey CPI – Inflation Pinned in Gold

Gold jewelry remains a common wedding gift in Turkey, reflecting a cultural practice where households preserve wealth through physical gold rather than financial assets. This preference, formed through decades of high inflation and currency instability, has...

Inflation Outlook 2026: New Year, New Inflation Regime?

Over the past year, global disinflation efforts have been complicated by escalating trade tensions that slowed global growth, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine that induced volatility in commodity prices, and widespread political instability driven...

Macroeconomic Insights: U.S. CPI – Now What?

The October and November 2025 CPI prints were materially affected by technical distortions related to the federal government shutdown. These distortions are likely to produce a period of temporary normalization in measured inflation over the coming months. The effect...

Macroeconomic Insights: What Drove US CPI Lower?

US CPI YoY NSA came in at 2.7%, significantly below consensus expectations (3.1%) and our own model forecast (3.0%). Core CPI YoY NSA also printed weaker at 2.6% versus market expectations. The 40 basis point miss represents one of the largest negative surprises in...