Poland’s flash CPI for August 2026 printed at 3.4% YoY, up from 3.0% in July and 2.5% in June. Turnleaf’s 1 September 2026 forecast holds headline inflation above 4% YoY from the fourth quarter of 2026, peaks it a little above 5% YoY around the middle of...
Chinese headline CPI rose 0.5% YoY in July 2026, with core inflation at 0.9%, leaving the January to July average at just 0.9% against an official target of around 2%. The food, tobacco and alcohol category and residence account for 51.6% of the basket between them...
US headline CPI printed 3.4% YoY in July 2026 with core at 2.5%, a second consecutive deceleration from the 4.2% peak in May. This morning’s PCE release for the same month ran hotter, with headline at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, and the second estimate of Q2 revised...
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since 28 February 2026 and has not meaningfully normalised. Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted just 73 transits in the week to 16 August, around 10 a day, against roughly 103 trading...
Euro area annual inflation rose to 2.9% YoY in July 2026 from 2.8% in June, confirmed in Eurostat’s final release, driven by a renewed acceleration in energy inflation to 10.3% YoY from 8.5%. Turnleaf’s 18 August 2026 forecast suggests this pressure will...
No region sits closer to the February 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz than Asia. On Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates, roughly four fifths of the crude that transited the strait before the closure was delivered to Asian markets, with China, India,...
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