Spain headline CPI YoY jumped sharply to 3.3% YoY in March 2026 from 2.3% in February entirely on the back of energy price reversals linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption. The market had priced in an even larger shock with consensus standing...
Across the Asia-Pacific, policymakers are throwing subsidies, tax cuts, reserve releases, and pricing controls at rising fuel costs in an attempt to delay or smooth an external energy shock from becoming a broader inflation problem (Figure 1). But that strategy is...
In an earlier post, we explored the lagged correlations between Brent crude oil price changes and CPI (Figure 1). Here, we see that for many LATAM countries pass-through is weaker and relatively slower than countries like the U.S. and South Korea. Figure 1 The...
The war in Iran has persisted far longer than anticipated, driving sustained increases in global commodity prices. These pressures are now filtering into downstream products derived from crude oil, particularly jet fuel (Figure 1). As fuel costs rise, airlines are...
Over the past three weeks, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East has coincided with a clear increase in Brent crude prices, reinforcing the expectation of near-term upward pressure on CPI through the energy channel. However, focusing solely on oil overlooks...
It’s been more than 2 weeks since the US-Israel joint combat mission against Iran began and the conflict doesn’t look like its going to end any time soon. Iran is doing everything it can to resist U.S.–Israeli forces, including using military force and causing...
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