Over the past year, global disinflation efforts have been complicated by escalating trade tensions that slowed global growth, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine that induced volatility in commodity prices, and widespread political instability driven...
The October and November 2025 CPI prints were materially affected by technical distortions related to the federal government shutdown. These distortions are likely to produce a period of temporary normalization in measured inflation over the coming months. The effect...
US CPI YoY NSA came in at 2.7%, significantly below consensus expectations (3.1%) and our own model forecast (3.0%). Core CPI YoY NSA also printed weaker at 2.6% versus market expectations. The 40 basis point miss represents one of the largest negative surprises in...
Turnleaf expects Chilean inflation to ease below the central bank’s 3% target in early 2025, driven by peso appreciation compressing import prices and subdued energy costs (Figure 1 – PAID). Despite elevated copper prices sustaining terms of trade, export...
The recent spike in natural gas futures reflects market expectations of future supply constraints. Unlike past volatility driven by weather alone, this increase stems from structural imbalance like growing LNG exports, surging electricity demand (especially from data...
Last month Turnleaf argued that Switzerland was escaping deflation but still stuck near 0% inflation over the next year, with any firming coming mainly from tax changes and services inflation, while a strong franc kept goods prices pressured. November’s 0.02%...
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