US CPI YoY NSA came in at 2.7%, significantly below consensus expectations (3.1%) and our own model forecast (3.0%). Core CPI YoY NSA also printed weaker at 2.6% versus market expectations. The 40 basis point miss represents one of the largest negative surprises in...
Turnleaf expects Chilean inflation to ease below the central bank’s 3% target in early 2025, driven by peso appreciation compressing import prices and subdued energy costs (Figure 1 – PAID). Despite elevated copper prices sustaining terms of trade, export...
The recent spike in natural gas futures reflects market expectations of future supply constraints. Unlike past volatility driven by weather alone, this increase stems from structural imbalance like growing LNG exports, surging electricity demand (especially from data...
Last month Turnleaf argued that Switzerland was escaping deflation but still stuck near 0% inflation over the next year, with any firming coming mainly from tax changes and services inflation, while a strong franc kept goods prices pressured. November’s 0.02%...
Reaching 3.8% YoY in October 2025, headline CPI is currently above both the RBA’s 2–3% target band and the market consensus forecast of 3.6% (ABS CPI October 2025). Turnleaf’s model projected 3.7% YoY, capturing the direction and approximate size of the...
In the past month Turnleaf’s 12-month inflation forecast for India has edged lower as the pace of food and energy price increases slowed. This moderation reflects seasonal dynamics and temporary declines in current market prices rather than any meaningful...
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