On 3 November 2026, Democrats secured majorities in both the House and Senate, with 89% of voters citing the cost of living as a major or crucial factor in their vote. The November CPI report, due on 10 December, is unlikely to ease those concerns. Turnleaf’s...
Chancellor John Healey delivered his first Budget on 28 October, setting fiscal headroom at £15 billion for 2029/30. The measures most relevant for consumer prices extend the 5p per litre fuel duty cut and the zero rate of VAT on domestic electricity to 1 July 2027,...
Brazil re-elected President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 25 October, with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Financial markets reacted sharply the following day. The dollar rose 8.36% against the real to R$5.406, its largest daily gain in 23...
French consumer prices rose 3.0% YoY in September 2026, up from 2.4% in August and the highest reading since February 2024, according to the INSEE flash estimate of 30 September. The drivers behind that rise were already visible in our model before the release. In our...
With September inflation data now arriving, we can compare the realised outcomes with forecasts made at the end of March, a few weeks into the conflict with Iran. Our forecasts had already moved higher with energy prices, providing an early view of where inflation...
Euro area inflation rose to 3.2% YoY in August from 2.9% in July, with energy contributing 1.29 percentage points to the annual rate, according to Eurostat. The ECB’s September staff projections put the peak at 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and inflation at...
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