As of September 2025, Japan’s inflation profile remains dominated by food price dynamics. The headline 2.9% YoY reading reflects a disproportionate rice contribution—despite representing only 0.62% of the CPI basket, rice added 150–170 bps through its 49.2% YoY...
The BLS released the September 2025 CPI print on October 24, nine days after its originally scheduled October 15 release date, following a partial recall of staff during the government shutdown that began October 1. However, the White House has confirmed that the...
Brazilian inflation has proved particularly sticky, driven by persistent wage growth, global trade dynamics, and elevated food inflation from weather-related supply constraints. Turnleaf projects inflation to remain close to 5% YoY through the end of the year, until...
UK CPI for September 2025 declined to 3.8% YoY, falling below market expectations of 4.0% (vs. Turnleaf estimate of 3.94%). The decline was primarily driven by sustained lower food prices from August 2025 and reduced costs in the culture and recreation category....
Japan’s CPI over the next two months will be shaped by a mix of expiring and newly introduced subsidies. Over the past two years, national electricity and gas subsidies have played a key role in containing energy inflation, while Tokyo went further by introducing...
Turnleaf expects Australia’s 12-month inflation forecast path to remain close to the Reserve Bank’s upper bound 3% target range as stronger than expected demand continues to stimulate growth, petrol prices begin to increase as low energy base effects slip...
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