Last month Turnleaf argued that Switzerland was escaping deflation but still stuck near 0% inflation over the next year, with any firming coming mainly from tax changes and services inflation, while a strong franc kept goods prices pressured. November’s 0.02%...
Reaching 3.8% YoY in October 2025, headline CPI is currently above both the RBA’s 2–3% target band and the market consensus forecast of 3.6% (ABS CPI October 2025). Turnleaf’s model projected 3.7% YoY, capturing the direction and approximate size of the...
In the past month Turnleaf’s 12-month inflation forecast for India has edged lower as the pace of food and energy price increases slowed. This moderation reflects seasonal dynamics and temporary declines in current market prices rather than any meaningful...
The Autumn 2025 Budget, scheduled for 26 November, is expected to deliver substantial fiscal tightening. Independent forecasts estimate a tax-raising package in the region of £20–40 billion, with several analyses clustering around £38 billion. Such consolidation...
The 43-day U.S. government shutdown has materially degraded the quality of October’s inflation data. With BLS field operations suspended for the duration of the collection window, almost no primary price data were gathered. Any October CPI release will therefore rely...
The Norway Statistical Institute recently revised the latest CPI print from 3.3% to 3.1%, correcting an error in electricity-price calculations that overstated inflation. Despite this adjustment, the institute maintained that the broader inflation picture, including...
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