The new round of United States tariffs will not add materially to inflation. The 10% Section 122 surcharge lapses today, 24 July 2026, and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is finalising a Section 301 forced labour action to replace it at 10%...
UK CPI printed at 2.6% YoY in June 2026, but the composition of that print sits uncomfortably against a broader policy package now working its way through the price level. Services inflation ran at 3.6% in the same month, a full percentage point above the headline...
The oil shock has entered a more complicated phase. Since late February, when the US and Iran conflict began, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely restricted, cutting the majority of normal Gulf export flows. That disruption constrained the...
The wireless telephone services component of US CPI has been behaving strangely over the past year. The recent behaviour is really two things stacked on top of a long structural trend. The first is a methodology change. From the July 2025 CPI, released in August, BLS...
De la Espriella’s narrow runoff win prompted the market to price a more orthodox, pro-business stance. That meant a stronger peso and lower risk premia, with a chance of reopening investment sensitive sectors such as energy. The optimism runs up against a...
Every time I watch the FIFA World Cup, there’s always something that surprises me. I didn’t expect Japan to score against Brazil in the first half, nor did I expect Cape Verde to tie with Spain. When about 70,000 people flock to host cities like Kansas...
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