US airline fares rose 2.7% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 23.4% higher than a year earlier before adjustment. The increase was one of the services components behind a 0.3% MoM core CPI print, above the 0.2% consensus, and strengthened the case for a...
Six months after Iran began blocking the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026, the cost of many of the inputs that feed into food production has risen sharply, yet consumer food prices have barely responded. Urea, a key input for fertilisers, passed $850 a tonne in...
Poland’s flash CPI for August 2026 printed at 3.4% YoY, up from 3.0% in July and 2.5% in June. Turnleaf’s 1 September 2026 forecast holds headline inflation above 4% YoY from the fourth quarter of 2026, peaks it a little above 5% YoY around the middle of...
Chinese headline CPI rose 0.5% YoY in July 2026, with core inflation at 0.9%, leaving the January to July average at just 0.9% against an official target of around 2%. The food, tobacco and alcohol category and residence account for 51.6% of the basket between them...
US headline CPI printed 3.4% YoY in July 2026 with core at 2.5%, a second consecutive deceleration from the 4.2% peak in May. This morning’s PCE release for the same month ran hotter, with headline at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, and the second estimate of Q2 revised...
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since 28 February 2026 and has not meaningfully normalised. Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted just 73 transits in the week to 16 August, around 10 a day, against roughly 103 trading...
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