Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since 28 February 2026 and has not meaningfully normalised. Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted just 73 transits in the week to 16 August, around 10 a day, against roughly 103 trading...
Euro area annual inflation rose to 2.9% YoY in July 2026 from 2.8% in June, confirmed in Eurostat’s final release, driven by a renewed acceleration in energy inflation to 10.3% YoY from 8.5%. Turnleaf’s 18 August 2026 forecast suggests this pressure will...
No region sits closer to the February 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz than Asia. On Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates, roughly four fifths of the crude that transited the strait before the closure was delivered to Asian markets, with China, India,...
The 2026 oil shock has affected inflation very differently across Latin America. The same increase in global energy costs has passed through six different domestic transmission mechanisms (Figure 1). That divergence is already visible in the latest data. Headline...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the wider conflict involving Iran pushed regional fuel and gas costs sharply higher from March 2026. Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) entered that shock with different administered price regimes already in...
Since early March, the US-Iran conflict has disrupted Gulf oil supply, closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and taking Brent crude from roughly USD 70 in January to above USD 100 in April. A ceasefire returned prices to pre-war levels in June before a...
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