For the past few months, we have seen our forecasts for the Philippines adjust upwards as the central bank pivots from inflation-defensive to disinflation-offensive. Our Long-Term Contribution Word Cloud (Figure 1) help us identify key trends in bank assets, food, and...
In Colombia, almost 17% of the consumer price basket are administratively set. This includes household public services, transport, fuel, and education fees. The legislation behind these prices is typically subjected to many draft iterations, which make policy...
Turnleaf expects Czech CPI to fall close to 2% YoY by the end of 2025 and then float back up towards 3% YoY through 2026. In the short term, our model places greater weight on cooling energy prices, especially Brent crude, which should continue to push inflation lower...
In Spain, it’s jamón. In Italy, Parmigiano Reggiano. In Japan, fresh fish. Every country has its culinary treasures, but when the prices of these beloved staples rise, the effects ripple through inflation metrics. Food is a cornerstone of the consumer basket...
Understanding how energy costs feed into CPI is crucial for accurately interpreting headline inflation in Europe. Both Spain and Italy offer unique case studies of how specific retail energy series can serve as clean, forward-looking indicators of CPI dynamics. By...
Currently, the SARB has revised its forecasts downwards in response to rand appreciation and weaker economic growth. In contrast, Turnleaf’s model paints a more optimistic picture of growth, while also acknowledging that underlying price pressures are easing. A...
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