Late last night (April 7, 2026), the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire to allow for diplomacy. During this time, Iran has agreed to coordinate the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. News of the ceasefire pushed Brent Crude futures back down to...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 has triggered the largest physical supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent rose from roughly $69 per barrel in February to a peak of $126, before...
Spain headline CPI YoY jumped sharply to 3.3% YoY in March 2026 from 2.3% in February entirely on the back of energy price reversals linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption. The market had priced in an even larger shock with consensus standing...
Across the Asia-Pacific, policymakers are throwing subsidies, tax cuts, reserve releases, and pricing controls at rising fuel costs in an attempt to delay or smooth an external energy shock from becoming a broader inflation problem (Figure 1). But that strategy is...
In an earlier post, we explored the lagged correlations between Brent crude oil price changes and CPI (Figure 1). Here, we see that for many LATAM countries pass-through is weaker and relatively slower than countries like the U.S. and South Korea. Figure 1 The...
The war in Iran has persisted far longer than anticipated, driving sustained increases in global commodity prices. These pressures are now filtering into downstream products derived from crude oil, particularly jet fuel (Figure 1). As fuel costs rise, airlines are...
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