Brazil re-elected President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 25 October, with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Financial markets reacted sharply the following day. The dollar rose 8.36% against the real to R$5.406, its largest daily gain in 23...
French consumer prices rose 3.0% YoY in September 2026, up from 2.4% in August and the highest reading since February 2024, according to the INSEE flash estimate of 30 September. The drivers behind that rise were already visible in our model before the release. In our...
With September inflation data now arriving, we can compare the realised outcomes with forecasts made at the end of March, a few weeks into the conflict with Iran. Our forecasts had already moved higher with energy prices, providing an early view of where inflation...
Euro area inflation rose to 3.2% YoY in August from 2.9% in July, with energy contributing 1.29 percentage points to the annual rate, according to Eurostat. The ECB’s September staff projections put the peak at 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and inflation at...
US airline fares rose 2.7% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 23.4% higher than a year earlier before adjustment. The increase was one of the services components behind a 0.3% MoM core CPI print, above the 0.2% consensus, and strengthened the case for a...
Six months after Iran began blocking the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026, the cost of many of the inputs that feed into food production has risen sharply, yet consumer food prices have barely responded. Urea, a key input for fertilisers, passed $850 a tonne in...
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