Turnleaf’s latest data has pushed Turkey’s inflation outlook higher than consensus forecasts. There are multiple reasons for this which we will explain in this note. One of the reasons is the expanding liquidity for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by the...
The newly announced 25% tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum imports introduces cost pressures across global supply chains. However, the key question is not just how markets react, but how producers adjust their spending behavior in response to rising cost risks....
2025 Colombia CPI YoY Above Consensus Due to Global Inflation Pressures Turnleaf’s CPI YoY model projects Colombia inflation well above consensus 12 months out, as it more aggressively captures global inflation linkages, particularly through energy costs and external...
In our January 2025 YoY CPI forecast, we projected inflation at 4.57%, slightly above the realized 4.3%, yet outperforming consensus (4.71%)—even with our estimate released a full week ahead of the official print.The primary driver of disinflation in January was the...
Turnleaf is forecasting 2–2.5% headline inflation for the Eurozone in 2025, while core inflation is expected to decline through the end of the year towards 2% as momentum in wage growth slows and fiscal normalization settles. The uptick in inflation observed in...
When a new burger joint opens up, there’s often a buzz. Everyone (well, at least me) wants to try the new burger. Is it as good as it looks on Instagram? Or is it just style over substance, and simply an overpriced fast food place? This week, in the world of AI,...
