In our April 2025 inflation preview, we project headline CPI will undershoot consensus, underpinned by subdued Brent‐crude volatility, cheaper USD imports due to dollar weakness, and softer inflation expectations. However, April’s seasonal dynamics—especially firmer...
Just as Turnleaf has been applying alternative data to forecast inflation amid trade policy uncertainty, understanding Argentine inflation requires moving beyond conventional structural models. Inflation dynamics in Argentina are shaped less by traditional monetary...
Late last Friday, the U.S. administration announced exemptions for phones, computers, and chips from Trump’s tariffs after imposing a 145% tariff against China – a large exporter of electronics – a few days ago. It is becoming increasingly clear that the...
Within hours of the large-scale tariffs taking effect, the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause, replacing the full tariff package with a baseline 10% rate. China—among the first countries to respond with retaliatory tariffs—was excluded from this pause and...
The recent imposition of sweeping U.S. tariffs has triggered a sharp stock market selloff, erasing up to $2.5 trillion in market value. More importantly, this sell-off reflects rising expectations of inflation pressure and global recession risk. In response to this...
Yesterday, President Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, with higher rates targeted at countries running large trade surpluses with the U.S. Notably, Canada and Mexico are exempt from these new measures. For many analysts, the...
