Turnleaf’s latest data has pushed Turkey’s inflation outlook higher than consensus forecasts. There are multiple reasons for this which we will explain in this note. One of the reasons is the expanding liquidity for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by the...
In our January 2025 YoY CPI forecast, we projected inflation at 4.57%, slightly above the realized 4.3%, yet outperforming consensus (4.71%)—even with our estimate released a full week ahead of the official print.The primary driver of disinflation in January was the...
Turnleaf is forecasting 2–2.5% headline inflation for the Eurozone in 2025, while core inflation is expected to decline through the end of the year towards 2% as momentum in wage growth slows and fiscal normalization settles. The uptick in inflation observed in...
The Polish government’s decision to extend the cap on electricity prices at 500 PLN/MWh is a critical measure to limit inflationary pressures on households. To understand its implications, consider an average 3-person household with an annual electricity consumption...
At Turnleaf Analytics, leveraging our machine learning models, we project U.S. inflation to stabilize between 2–3% through 2025, shaped by the interplay of import inflation, expectations, and economic slack, especially with the possibility of new tariffs. Rising...
Germany, long regarded as Europe’s economic powerhouse, owes much of its success to its export-driven industrial base. However, recent years have seen this foundation weaken under the weight of declining global demand, shifting supply chain dynamics, and rising...
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