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Emerging Markets: Turnleaf Discusses Impact on Hungary’s 10% Profit Margin Cap Restriction on Inflation

Policy: In Hungary, from March 17 to May 31, 2025, a 10% profit margin cap will be imposed on 30 essential products, limiting companies’ profits on these items. Small independent shops with net revenue below HUF 1 billion (approximately EUR 2.5 million) in 2023...
Macroeconomic Insights: U.S. Inflation is Coming, But Not Where You Expect

Macroeconomic Insights: U.S. Inflation is Coming, But Not Where You Expect

Since taking office, President Trump has aggressively worked to revitalize domestic manufacturing by focusing on the U.S. trade balance. A key part of this strategy has been threatening tariffs on countries like Canada and Mexico, which he accuses of unfair trade...
Macroeconomics Insights – Beyond Tariffs: How Uncertainty is Steering U.S. Inflation Expectations

Macroeconomics Insights – Beyond Tariffs: How Uncertainty is Steering U.S. Inflation Expectations

When we forecast inflation, our goal is to account for as much explainable variation as possible, using available data and reasonable assumptions about how prices evolve. Indicators like softening unemployment or falling industrial production typically signal weaker...
Macroeconomic Insights: Tariffs, Manufacturing, and Mexico Inflation

Macroeconomic Insights: Tariffs, Manufacturing, and Mexico Inflation

This article marks the start of Turnleaf’s series on how U.S. tariffs shape inflation dynamics across Latin America (LATAM). Among the economies we monitor—Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile—most have witnessed upward shifts in their inflation trajectories. Mexico,...
Macroeconomic Insights: How U.S. Tariffs and Eurozone Weakness Are Shaping Chinese Inflation

Macroeconomic Insights: How U.S. Tariffs and Eurozone Weakness Are Shaping Chinese Inflation

The trajectory of Chinese inflation will largely depend on its sensitivity to U.S. tariffs and its ability to sustain domestic GDP growth through external demand, particularly from key partners like Germany. While U.S. tariffs on China present a challenge, our models...
Macroeconomic Insights: Prices to Increase in February 2025 as Canada’s Tax Holiday Takes a Holiday

Macroeconomic Insights: Prices to Increase in February 2025 as Canada’s Tax Holiday Takes a Holiday

Between mid-December 2024 and mid-February 2025, the Canadian government implemented a GST/HST tax holiday, exempting beverages, restaurants, children’s clothing and footwear, children’s diapers, children car seats, children’s toys, jigsaw puzzles, video...
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