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De la Espriella’s narrow runoff win prompted the market to price a more orthodox, pro-business stance. That meant a stronger peso and lower risk premia, with a chance of reopening investment sensitive sectors such as energy. The optimism runs up against a difficult inheritance. He takes over a strained fiscal position, where debt is high and revenue is weak, and the pressure to cut spending stretches across his whole term. The direction of policy is reasonably clear. What will shape inflation from here is his capacity to govern, and above all whether his finance minister can hold the deficit on a credible consolidation path.

Our latest forecasts caution against reading too much into the post election rally. The election may bend the inflation path, but it has not yet broken persistence. The updated headline CPI YoY NSA path still rises through the second half of 2026, moving from the high 5% area into the low-to-mid 6% range and peaking in late 2026 to early 2027 before easing only modestly into the spring (Figure 1). The spread across forecast vintages (darkest red color corresponds to the most recent nowcast and lightest corresponds to oldest nowcast) widens around that peak, so the message is a higher, bumpier path whose outcome depends on fiscal credibility and the peso.

Figure 1 – PAID (visit Substack post, here)

Core has become the clearer persistence signal. It also moves into the 6% range, but the updated paths are steadier than headline and remain around the low-to-mid 6s into 2027 (Figure 2). That leaves the election’s effect concentrated more in headline inflation than in the underlying trend. Headline may get some help from the peso and lower energy costs, but core inflation remains persistent.

Figure 2

Our forecast reflects that persistence and uncertainty.

That uncertainty is central to the nowcast. If tax cuts come before spending restraint, or if the transition remains politically noisy, Colombia could lose the currency benefit before it reaches households. A weaker peso would raise the cost of imported goods, while investor concern over the budget would make government borrowing more expensive and keep inflation expectations firm. For that pressure to ease, the market relief has to be backed by a credible budget path before it can show up in consumer prices.

Oil is the other force to weigh. With the US-Iran war winding down and traffic in the Hormuz strait normalizing, crude has given back most of its wartime spike and now trades near where it sat before. For a country that exports oil, cheaper crude eases imported fuel and input costs and calms the global nervousness our model has been carrying, both of which help bring inflation down. Working the other way, lower oil also leaves thinner export earnings and a softer peso, pressing straight on the budget gap the new administration is already trying to close. Energy relief and currency risk are two sides of one shock, and which prevails depends on how the government manages the fiscal transition.

Turnleaf’s latest Colombia nowcast still points to a firm inflation path, with domestic price pressure reinforced by external risks. Seasonality is doing the most to pull the forecast down, and softer global prices are adding some relief through cheaper imported goods, shipping, and energy-related inputs. But that relief is not enough to change the underlying picture. Domestic inflation is still high, inflation expectations remain elevated, and oil prices create a second channel of risk for Colombia. Lower crude can reduce fuel costs, but it can also weaken export earnings and put pressure on the peso. The updated results therefore show inflation being held down by seasonal and external relief, while domestic price pressure, expectations, and currency risk keep the path elevated. As fresh data arrives, we will refresh our Colombia nowcast in the coming weeks.