The Autumn 2025 Budget, scheduled for 26 November, is expected to deliver substantial fiscal tightening. Independent forecasts estimate a tax-raising package in the region of £20–40 billion, with several analyses clustering around £38 billion. Such consolidation...
The 43-day U.S. government shutdown has materially degraded the quality of October’s inflation data. With BLS field operations suspended for the duration of the collection window, almost no primary price data were gathered. Any October CPI release will therefore rely...
I recently went back to Imperial College. Whilst, I’ve been back many times since I graduated, this was the first time that I was returning to stand in front of an audience to present my research. I was giving a talk about trading FX using Reuters News data with...
The Norway Statistical Institute recently revised the latest CPI print from 3.3% to 3.1%, correcting an error in electricity-price calculations that overstated inflation. Despite this adjustment, the institute maintained that the broader inflation picture, including...
Turnleaf expects Abu Dhabi GDP growth to slow to 2-3%YoY in the next two quarters before hitting 7%YoY in 2026Q1 and then falling back to a bit over 3%YoY by June 2026 (Figure 1). Downward pressures are moderate and mainly concentrated in services and business...
Turnleaf expects Switzerland inflation to oscillate around 0% over the next 12 months with some indication of healthy price growth towards the tail-end of our forecast (Figure 1 – PAID). Robust appreciation of the Swiss franc has resulted in persistent...
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