Gelato and accurate data in markets

I’ve been subscribing to the FT for many years. Primarily, I read it to keep track of financial markets. FT’s longer form pieces complement having access to short articles on Bloomberg’s newswire and together they provide a good insight into what is...

Macroeconomic Insights: Peru CPI – Seasonality Overshooting Inflation Forecasts

Since May 2025, Peru’s inflation has been consistently undershooting the forecasts of the central bank and economists. Figure 1 shows successive BCRP forecast vintages for 2025–2027. Each vintage slopes up over the horizon, but the whole curve has shifted lower with...

Macroeconomic Insights: Philippines CPI – Fish Takes a Bite Into Inflation

For the past few months, we have seen our forecasts for the Philippines adjust upwards as the central bank pivots from inflation-defensive to disinflation-offensive. Our Long-Term Contribution Word Cloud (Figure 1) help us identify key trends in bank assets, food, and...

Macroeconomic Insights: Colombia CPI —  Understanding Prices Through the Media

In Colombia, almost 17% of the consumer price basket are administratively set. This includes household public services, transport, fuel, and education fees. The legislation behind these prices is typically subjected to many draft iterations, which make policy...

Macroeconomic Insights: Energy Prices —The Arbiter of Czech Republic CPI

Turnleaf expects Czech CPI to fall close to 2% YoY by the end of 2025 and then float back up towards 3% YoY through 2026. In the short term, our model places greater weight on cooling energy prices, especially Brent crude, which should continue to push inflation lower...

Macroeconomic Insights: What’s on the Inflation Menu? – Turnleaf’s Food Index Catalogue

In Spain, it’s jamón. In Italy, Parmigiano Reggiano. In Japan, fresh fish. Every country has its culinary treasures, but when the prices of these beloved staples rise, the effects ripple through inflation metrics. Food is a cornerstone of the consumer basket...