Let’s say you want to know what a burger will taste like. You look at the ingredients, and to some extent you’ll be able to “forecast” what it’ll taste like. Part of the difficulty is that your input data isn’t going to be super...
Just imagine you ordered a cheeseburger. Then low and behold, a salad is brought to your table. The probability of such a thing happening is not zero, especially in a busy restaurant, mix ups happen. It’s happened to all of us. Spare a thought for central banks...
I tweet a lot (from @saeedamenfx)! In amongst, the tweets about burgers, I tweet out a quant paper or link every day under the hashtag of #QuantLinkDay, mostly around FX, rates, economics, machine learning etc. Some are directly relevant to what we’re doing at...
I’ve been a fan of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger for many years. Indeed, I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve been to Omaha to hear Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger speak at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meetings. It really is a unique event,...
On the cusp of a new year, the question top of mind for many governments, businesses and individuals must be “What will economic growth and inflation be in 2024?” After all, 2022-2023 may well be remembered as the years that central banks and economists made major...
We are pleased to announce that we are starting to update our inflation forecasts on a weekly basis. Our first weekly forecast is for the United States, where: our model expects next week’s US CPI YoY NSA print for January to be 6.2% (revised from 6.04% from our last...
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