Turnleaf expects Czech CPI to fall close to 2% YoY by the end of 2025 and then float back up towards 3% YoY through 2026. In the short term, our model places greater weight on cooling energy prices, especially Brent crude, which should continue to push inflation lower...
In Spain, it’s jamón. In Italy, Parmigiano Reggiano. In Japan, fresh fish. Every country has its culinary treasures, but when the prices of these beloved staples rise, the effects ripple through inflation metrics. Food is a cornerstone of the consumer basket...
Understanding how energy costs feed into CPI is crucial for accurately interpreting headline inflation in Europe. Both Spain and Italy offer unique case studies of how specific retail energy series can serve as clean, forward-looking indicators of CPI dynamics. By...
Currently, the SARB has revised its forecasts downwards in response to rand appreciation and weaker economic growth. In contrast, Turnleaf’s model paints a more optimistic picture of growth, while also acknowledging that underlying price pressures are easing. A...
The recent surprise increase in electricity prices in Romania has pushed inflation close to 8%YoY. As Romania begins to rollback inflation fighting policies in the next couple of months, Turnleaf expects inflation to remain hot through July-2026 once base-effects are...
When evaluating the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, we consider how they affect prices both domestically and abroad. Key factors include the effective tariff rate, the degree of pass-through along the global value chain, import substitutability with domestic...
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