When we forecast inflation, our goal is to account for as much explainable variation as possible, using available data and reasonable assumptions about how prices evolve. Indicators like softening unemployment or falling industrial production typically signal weaker...
This article marks the start of Turnleaf’s series on how U.S. tariffs shape inflation dynamics across Latin America (LATAM). Among the economies we monitor—Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile—most have witnessed upward shifts in their inflation trajectories. Mexico,...
The trajectory of Chinese inflation will largely depend on its sensitivity to U.S. tariffs and its ability to sustain domestic GDP growth through external demand, particularly from key partners like Germany. While U.S. tariffs on China present a challenge, our models...
Between mid-December 2024 and mid-February 2025, the Canadian government implemented a GST/HST tax holiday, exempting beverages, restaurants, children’s clothing and footwear, children’s diapers, children car seats, children’s toys, jigsaw puzzles, video...
Turnleaf’s latest data has pushed Turkey’s inflation outlook higher than consensus forecasts. There are multiple reasons for this which we will explain in this note. One of the reasons is the expanding liquidity for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by the...
The newly announced 25% tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum imports introduces cost pressures across global supply chains. However, the key question is not just how markets react, but how producers adjust their spending behavior in response to rising cost risks....
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