This issue aims to clarify several of Turnleaf’s and the market’s forecast deviations over the past few months. Below, we outline key insights and performance drivers across a selected group of countries. If you have any questions or would like to discuss further,...
In recent forecasts, Turnleaf has observed an interesting trend in India’s inflation dynamics. While headline inflation has been trending downward, largely driven by a decrease in vegetable prices, core inflation—which excludes food and energy—has been rising (Figure...
Recent retail sales in Poland have come in below expectations (-0.5%YoY in February 2025), with a significant decline driven by vehicle sales, followed by reduced consumption in food and fuel. Our model incorporates factors that directly influence the underlying...
The tail of our inflation curve is currently driven by two key factors: U.S. tariffs set for April 2, 2025, and Plan Mexico, which aims to revitalize domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on cheap imports from Asia. These factors are creating upward price...
Amid shifting geopolitical tensions and the need to revitalise its economy, Germany is preparing for a massive fiscal stimulus that will allocate up to $1 trillion in defence and infrastructure spending over the next 12 years. This spending plan will require borrowing...
Policy: In Hungary, from March 17 to May 31, 2025, a 10% profit margin cap will be imposed on 30 essential products, limiting companies’ profits on these items. Small independent shops with net revenue below HUF 1 billion (approximately EUR 2.5 million) in 2023...
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