Currently, the SARB has revised its forecasts downwards in response to rand appreciation and weaker economic growth. In contrast, Turnleaf’s model paints a more optimistic picture of growth, while also acknowledging that underlying price pressures are easing. A...
The recent surprise increase in electricity prices in Romania has pushed inflation close to 8%YoY. As Romania begins to rollback inflation fighting policies in the next couple of months, Turnleaf expects inflation to remain hot through July-2026 once base-effects are...
When evaluating the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, we consider how they affect prices both domestically and abroad. Key factors include the effective tariff rate, the degree of pass-through along the global value chain, import substitutability with domestic...
Last week, President Trump threatened to impose a 39% tariff on Switzerland, higher than the initial 31% discussed in April 2025. With the U.S. being a major importer of Swiss products like watches, chocolates, and machinery (12.3% of Swiss exports), such a steep...
The Eurozone Grew More Than Expected – Germany & Italy Overall, the Eurozone has enjoyed 0.6%QoQ growth in 2025Q1 despite disinflationary forces like weaker consumer and business sentiment subduing CPI. Recent priorities by the Eurozone to shift supply chains has...
On August 3, 2025, Ben Gurion Airport will resume over 120 international flights for the month, though this remains insufficient to fully meet demand. Israeli travel companies have cited 10 to 15% higher ticket prices to destinations like New York City, due to reduced...
