Turnleaf’s Headline CPI YoY forecast for South Africa has been revised lower following the unexpected August 2025 print of 3.3% YoY. The shift downwards of the inflation curve is driven mainly by softer food inflation in the last print—down from 5.7% YoY in July to...
Turnleaf’s September 2025 headline inflation forecast for Hungary over the next 12 months points to an uptick toward 5% YoY by October 2025, followed by a steady decline into early 2026, with the trend reverting toward 4% YoY over the rest of 2026. With the Orban...
At the start of 2025, tariffs posed a meaningful downside risk to Eurozone inflation. Yet Eurozone growth has proven more resilient than many expected. The potential loss of external demand from higher tariffs has been partly offset by dollar depreciation,...
I’ve been subscribing to the FT for many years. Primarily, I read it to keep track of financial markets. FT’s longer form pieces complement having access to short articles on Bloomberg’s newswire and together they provide a good insight into what is...
Since May 2025, Peru’s inflation has been consistently undershooting the forecasts of the central bank and economists. Figure 1 shows successive BCRP forecast vintages for 2025–2027. Each vintage slopes up over the horizon, but the whole curve has shifted lower with...
For the past few months, we have seen our forecasts for the Philippines adjust upwards as the central bank pivots from inflation-defensive to disinflation-offensive. Our Long-Term Contribution Word Cloud (Figure 1) help us identify key trends in bank assets, food, and...
