Over the past 24 hours, Israel’s strike on Iran has markedly increased upside risks to inflation in the country. Just as tariffs introduce additional costs to consumers, businesses tend to pass on the cost of war to consumers. The risk of cargo ships getting entangled...
Since the start of the year, housing market indicators have increasingly correlated with rising inflation pressures. Interestingly, Spain classifies mortgages as financial assets, excluding them from the CPI basket. Instead, tenant rents, a proxy reflecting potential...
Our United States CPI YoY, NSA model continues to flag two quiet but disinflationary forces: a moderate rise in unemployment and trends in disability-program flows. To qualify for Social-Security Disability Insurance, applicants must show their condition limits...
When you’re in New York, there are several things you have to have, a burger (preferably from Minetta Tavern), a cookie (preferably from Levain bakery on the Upper East Side) and a bagel (preferably from my new favourite, Popup Bagels). However, I promise this...
There’s just something about being in Geneva that makes you want to reduce tariffs on all Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Recently, the U.S. and China reached an agreement to cut tariffs on each other’s goods for the next 90 days. Trump followed up by confirming that...
Over the past week and half I’ve been travelling in America, starting with Chicago, then Omaha and finally New York. I’ve met many clients and attended various financial events, including the Berkshire Hathaway meeting (which I wrote up here), Neudata data conference...
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