On March 17, 2025, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government introduced a profit-margin cap across thirty essential goods, beefing up oversight to prevent cross-pricing strategies (for example, offsetting a cut on fish by hiking detergent prices). Previous rounds of...
In our April 2025 inflation preview, we project headline CPI will undershoot consensus, underpinned by subdued Brent‐crude volatility, cheaper USD imports due to dollar weakness, and softer inflation expectations. However, April’s seasonal dynamics—especially firmer...
Just as Turnleaf has been applying alternative data to forecast inflation amid trade policy uncertainty, understanding Argentine inflation requires moving beyond conventional structural models. Inflation dynamics in Argentina are shaped less by traditional monetary...
Late last Friday, the U.S. administration announced exemptions for phones, computers, and chips from Trump’s tariffs after imposing a 145% tariff against China – a large exporter of electronics – a few days ago. It is becoming increasingly clear that the...
Harold Wilson once said a week is a long time in politics. He might have had the foresight to be referring to Liberation Day and the subsequent fallout into markets. One particular point that has been raised by many market participants is the recent fall in the dollar...
Within hours of the large-scale tariffs taking effect, the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause, replacing the full tariff package with a baseline 10% rate. China—among the first countries to respond with retaliatory tariffs—was excluded from this pause and...
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