Turnleaf expects Australia’s 12-month inflation forecast path to remain close to the Reserve Bank’s upper bound 3% target range as stronger than expected demand continues to stimulate growth, petrol prices begin to increase as low energy base effects slip...
China’s headline CPI rose to -0.3% YoY in September 2025, still capped by food deflation and soft energy prices. Core CPI printed 1.0% YoY, above headline but still subdued as goods disinflation and weak services demand restrain momentum. We expect Chinese New...
Core Goods and Core Services are steering U.S. inflation in the second half of 2025. According to Turnleaf’s U.S. inflation models, Core Goods will be driven by short-lived tariff effects and softer goods flow over the next three months, while Core Services dominates...
Italy is made up of twenty regions, each of which is very different from another, from Veneto to Lazio to Puglia. Two weeks ago I visited Sicily. Perhaps unsurprisingly for an island, the sea seems ever present in Sicily. At the crossroads of the Mediterranean, there...
Turnleaf’s Oct 9, 2025 nowcast for September 2025 prints slightly higher than the Oct 1, 2025 weekly, reflecting a mix of policy and pricing signals that point to firmer levels over the next year (Figure 1 – available on Substack). The curve is tilted upward...
Consumers are waiting for something bad to happen. Industrial weakness and worries about the government dominate the story, and French households are preparing for the worst. As discussed in earlier posts, unemployment concerns are pushing precautionary saving higher...
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