Amid shifting geopolitical tensions and the need to revitalise its economy, Germany is preparing for a massive fiscal stimulus that will allocate up to $1 trillion in defence and infrastructure spending over the next 12 years. This spending plan will require borrowing...
Policy: In Hungary, from March 17 to May 31, 2025, a 10% profit margin cap will be imposed on 30 essential products, limiting companies’ profits on these items. Small independent shops with net revenue below HUF 1 billion (approximately EUR 2.5 million) in 2023...
Since taking office, President Trump has aggressively worked to revitalize domestic manufacturing by focusing on the U.S. trade balance. A key part of this strategy has been threatening tariffs on countries like Canada and Mexico, which he accuses of unfair trade...
When we forecast inflation, our goal is to account for as much explainable variation as possible, using available data and reasonable assumptions about how prices evolve. Indicators like softening unemployment or falling industrial production typically signal weaker...
This article marks the start of Turnleaf’s series on how U.S. tariffs shape inflation dynamics across Latin America (LATAM). Among the economies we monitor—Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile—most have witnessed upward shifts in their inflation trajectories. Mexico,...
The trajectory of Chinese inflation will largely depend on its sensitivity to U.S. tariffs and its ability to sustain domestic GDP growth through external demand, particularly from key partners like Germany. While U.S. tariffs on China present a challenge, our models...
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