Using Turnleaf Analytics inflation forecasts to trade FX

In this paper, we investigate how the differential in Turnleaf Analytics inflation forecasts compared to consensus can be used to trade the most liquid FX pairs systematically. The rationale is that the differential in inflation forecasts can be a proxy for relative monetary policy expectations, which impact FX. In a historical sample from 2018 onwards, our Turnleaf Analytics inflation strategy for trading FX has risk adjusted returns of 1.19 and annualised returns of 7.17%.

By comparison, trend and rates based strategies for trading FX, which can be considered as a benchmark, have risk adjusted returns of 0.23 and 0.27 respectively, underperforming the Turnleaf Analytics strategy.