I tweet a lot (from @saeedamenfx and at BlueSky at @saeedamenfx.bsky.social)! In amongst the tweets about burgers, I tweet out a quant paper or link every day under the hashtag of #QuantLinkDay, mostly around FX, rates, economics, machine learning etc. Some are directly relevant to what we’re doing at Turnleaf Analytics forecasting inflation and other economic variables (and if you’re interested in getting a subscription of our forecasts let me know!), but many others are just stuff I find interesting, even if it’s not directly related to my job. Whilst I don’t have enough time to read every single paper I tweet out, I do check the abstract to make sure the subject it likely to be relevant.
In order to make the links easier to navigate through, at the end of each year, I collect them together into one post, and for 2025, I’m doing exactly that again. Below you’ll find all the #QuantLinkADay links collected together for 2025. I’ve also tried to classify each paper under the topic (although admittedly, many of these papers could be under multiple comments).
If you’re interested in the list from 2016, click here or from 2017 here and also the list from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. I’d also hope readers had a very Merry Christmas and best of luck for 2026!
01-Jan / Machine Learning / Strategic Learning and Trading in Broker-Mediated Markets
02-Jan / Economics / Missing Data Substitution for Enhanced Robust Filtering and Forecasting in Linear State-Space Models
03-Jan / Economics / Puppies or Policy: Measuring Household (In)Attention to Central Bank Communication
04-Jan / FX / Twin Stars: Neutral Rates and Currency Risk Premia
05-Jan / Economics / Monetary Transmission in Equity Markets: Evidence from Financial Intermediaries
06-Jan / Machine Learning / Quantifying A Firm’s AI Engagement: Constructing Objective, Data-Driven, AI Stock Indices Using 10-K Filings
07-Jan / Economics / “Good” Inflation, “Bad” Inflation: Implications for Risky Asset Prices
08-Jan / Economics / The geography of capital allocation in the euro area
09-Jan / Machine Learning / Synthetic Data for Portfolios: A Throw of the Dice Will Never Abolish Chance
10-Jan / Economics / Unpacking Commodity Price Fluctuations: Reading the News to Understand Inflation
11-Jan / Trading / Market Making with Fads, Informed, and Uninformed Traders
12-Jan / Economics / From Waves to Rates: Enhancing Inflation Forecasts Through Combinations of Frequency-domain Models
13-Jan / Economics / El Niño, La Niña and Inflation
14-Jan / Trading / Follow the Leader: Enhancing Systematic Trend-Following Using Network Momentum
15-Jan / Trading / Inflation and Trading
16-Jan / Economics / Flexible asset purchases and repo market functioning
17-Jan / Machine Learning / Synthetic Data for Portfolios: A Throw of the Dice Will Never Abolish Chance
18-Jan / Economics / Decoding Equity Market Reactions to Macroeconomic News
19-Jan / Economics / Inflation Tales: the Heterogenous Price Effects from Current Account Dynamics
20-Jan / FX / Demand-Driven Risk Premia in FX and Bond Markets
21-Jan / Economics / Immigration and Local Inflation
22-Jan / Economics / Forceful or Persistent: How the ECB’s New Inflation Target Affects Households’ Inflation Expectations
23-Jan / Machine Learning / Open Sourcing GPTs: Economics of Open Sourcing Advanced AI Models
24-Jan / Economics / Do inflation expectations respond to monetary policy? An empirical analysis for the United Kingdom
25-Jan / FX / Geopolitical Risks and Exchange Rates
26-Jan / FX / Portfolio Inertia and Expected Excess Returns in Currency Markets
27-Jan / Economics / Inflation Expectations and Firms’ Decisions in High Inflation: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
28-Jan / Economics / International Inflation Correlation Risk, Hedge or Trade, Nature Spirit
29-Jan / Trading / Reaction Times to Economic News in High-Frequency Trading: An Analysis of Latency and Informed Trading reacting to Macro-News Announcements
30-Jan / Trading / Why is the estimation of metaorder impact with public market data so challenging?
31-Jan / Economics / Quantitative Easing and Preferred Habitat Investors in the Euro Area Bond Market
01-Feb / Economics / Monitoring Business Cycle Fluctuations in Asia
02-Feb / Economics / Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates
03-Feb / Economics / Monetary-Fiscal Interaction and the Liquidity of Government Debt
04-Feb / Economics / Trade Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Tax Dynamics: Is the ‘Most Beautiful Word’ a Tax in Disguise?
05-Feb / Economics / International Inflation Correlation Risk, Hedge or Trade, Nature Spirit
06-Feb / Economics / Measuring Economic Distress Using The Contingent Claims Approach
07-Feb / Economics / Is Public Support For the Euro Influenced by Eurosystem Speeches?
08-Feb / Trading / Monetary Policy and Hedge Funds’ Reaching for Beta
09-Feb / Economics / The Impact of Tariffs on Inflation
10-Feb / Economics / Natural rate estimates for the euro area: insights, uncertainties and shortcomings
11-Feb / FX / Dynamic Impact of Foreign Exchange Trading Volume on Foreign Exchange Volatility
12-Feb / FX / Event-Driven Changes in Volatility Connectedness in Global Forex Markets
13-Feb / Commodities / Liquidity, Monetary Policy and the Commodity Futures Market
14-Feb / Economics / How Costly are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi Approach
15-Feb / Economics / Monetary policy and the firm-level labor share: a story about capital
16-Feb / Economics / Institutional investors and house prices
17-Feb / Machine Learning / Utilizing Pre-trained and Large Language Models for 10-K Items Segmentation
18-Feb / Machine Learning / Research in Commotion: Measuring AI Research and Development through Conference Call Transcripts
19-Feb / Commodities / “One Out of Many” Consolidating a Long-term Trend Forecast for Investing in Energy Commodities 1
20-Feb / Machine Learning / Transformer Based Time-Series Forecasting for Stock
21-Feb / Economics / Monetary transmission through the housing sector
22-Feb / Economics / The taming of the skew: asymmetric inflation risk and monetary policy
23-Feb / Machine Learning / TLOB: A Novel Transformer Model with Dual Attention for Stock Price Trend Prediction with Limit Order Book Data
24-Feb / Economics / Stories that (are) Move(d by) Markets: A Causal Exploration of Market Shocks and Semantic Shifts across Different Partisan Groups
25-Feb / Economics / Sticky information and price controls: Evidence from a natural experiment
26-Feb / Economics / Fiscal and macroprudential policies during an energy crisis
27-Feb / FX / The Macroeconomic Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention
28-Feb / Economics / Sentiment Analysis with Large Language Models Applied to the Federal Reserve Beige Book
01-Mar / Machine Learning / A Method for Evaluating the Interpretability of Machine Learning Models in Predicting Bond Default Risk Based on LIME and SHAP
02-Mar / Machine Learning / Using quantile time series and historical simulation to forecast financial risk multiple steps ahead
03-Mar / Economics / The heterogeneous effects of household debt relief
04-Mar / Trading / Understanding the Commodity Futures Term Structure Through Signatures
05-Mar / Machine Learning / The Role of Deep Learning in Financial Asset Management: A Systematic Review
06-Mar / Machine Learning / Advanced Deep Learning Techniques for Analyzing Earnings Call Transcripts: Methodologies and Applications
07-Mar / Trading / A New Traders’ Game? — Response Functions in a Historical Perspective
08-Mar / Trading / The Relationship between Market Depth and Liquidity Fragility in the Treasury Market
09-Mar / FX / Looking into informal currency markets as Limit Order Books: impact of market makers
10-Mar / Economics / Decomposed Oil-Driven Inflation Persistence and Asymmetric Shocks
11-Mar / Economics / Long-Run Inflation Expectations
12-Mar / Economics / Can A Sovereign Wealth Fund Improve Fiscal Sustainability
13-Mar / Machine Learning / Liquidity Competition Between Brokers and an Informed Trader
14-Mar / Economics / Personal Inflation Rates in the Euro Area
15-Mar / Machine Learning / Label Unbalance in High-frequency Trading
16-Mar / Cryptocurrencies / Consumer attitudes towards a central bank digital currency
17-Mar / Economics / Long-Run Inflation Expectations
18-Mar / Economics / Monetary and Central Bank Information Shocks: Tales from Alternative Identifications
19-Mar / Economics / Why Do Supply Disruptions Lead to Inflation?
20-Mar / Economics / Blurred Vision: How Mortgage Interest Costs Impact Inflation
21-Mar / Economics / Putting countries on the cap? Pastoral visits of John Paul II and international trade
22-Mar / Economics / Tactical Asset Allocation with Macroeconomic Regime Detection
23-Mar / FX / Who Carries?
24-Mar / Cryptocurrencies / The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A Hedge Against Inflation or Digital Mirage?
25-Mar / Cryptocurrencies / Informer in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on High Frequency Bitcoin Data
26-Mar / Trading / A Simple Strategy to Deal with Toxic Flow
27-Mar / Economics / Beyond the Streetlight: Economic Measurement in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve
28-Mar / Economics / From Deep Learning to LLMs: A survey of AI in Quantitative Investment
29-Mar / Machine Learning / Forecasting U.S. equity market volatility with attention and sentiment to the economy
30-Mar / Machine Learning / The Limits of AI in Financial Services
31-Mar / Economics / An Interoperability Framework for Payment Systems
01-Apr / Economics / How Markets Process Macro News: The Importance of Investor Attention
02-Apr / Machine Learning / Bridging Language Models and Financial Analysis
03-Apr / Machine Learning / A Geospatial Approach to Measuring Economic Activity
04-Apr / Machine Learning / GPT Adoption and the Impact of Disclosure Policies
05-Apr / Economics / Improving the Median CPI: Maximal Disaggregation Isn’t Necessarily Optimal
06-Apr / FX / Covered Interest Parity in Emerging Markets
07-Apr / Economics / Blameocracy: Causal Attribution in Political Communication
08-Apr / Machine Learning / Causal Portfolio Optimization: Principles and Sensitivity-Based Solutions
09-Apr / Economics / The Consequences of the America First Trade Policy: What We Learn from the 1971 Nixon Measures
10-Apr / Economics / Parsing Out the Sources of Inflation
11-Apr / Economics / A Note on Supply Shocks, Inflation Expectations and Second-Round Effects
12-Apr / Economics / Bidding Behavior in Italian Treasury Auctions
13-Apr / FX / Demand for Safe Assets and Spillovers from the Global Dollar Cycle
14-Apr / Trading / Breaking the Trend: How to Avoid Cherry-Picked Signals
15-Apr / Economics / International Financial Markets Through 150 Years: Evaluating Stylized Facts
16-Apr / Economics / Quantifying Federal Reserve Credibility
17-Apr / Commodities / Will Peak Demand Roil Global Oil Markets?
18-Apr / Economics / Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Role of the Dollar
19-Apr / Economics / The Trade-Inflation Nexus: The Role of Production Networks
20-Apr / Machine Learning / Cross-Modal Temporal Fusion for Financial Market Forecasting
21-Apr / Machine Learning / Deep Learning Models Meet Financial Data Modalities
22-Apr / Machine Learning / FinTextSim: Enhancing Financial Text Analysis with BERTopic
23-Apr / Economics / Partisan Trust in the Federal Reserve
24-Apr / Economics / Team Persistent or Team Transitory? Sectoral Linkage and Inflation Persistence
25-Apr / Economics / Auctions, Announcements, and Abnormal Returns
26-Apr / Economics / Inflation cycles: evidence from international data
27-Apr / Machine Learning / Real-Time Sentiment Insights from X Using VADER, DistilBERT, and Web-Scraped Data
28-Apr / Economics / Post-Pandemic Price Flexibility in the U.S.: Evidence and Implications for Price Setting Models
29-Apr / Machine Learning / ClusterLOB: Enhancing Trading Strategies by Clustering Orders in Limit Order Books
30-Apr / Economics / Monetary Policy Strategy and the Anchoring of Long-Run Inflation Expectations
01-May / Machine Learning / Forecasting Inflation Using Commodity-Based Google Search Volume Index Variables: A Case Study In Indonesia
02-May / Economics / Food prices matter most: sensitive household inflation expectations
03-May / Economics / How is Geopolitical Fragmentation Reshaping U.S. Foreign Direct Investment?
04-May / Economics / It is all about demand and supply: a dualistic view of the euro area business cycle
05-May / Economics / The Impact of Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Shocks on the Default Risk of the Euro-Area Corporate Sector
06-May / Machine Learning / Why is the volatility of single stocks so much rougher than that of the S&P500?
07-May / FX / FOMC Announcement Premia in Currency Markets
08-May / FX / Generative AI and Fundamentals-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting
09-May / Economics / When News Isn’t Just News: Partisan Affiliation and Inflation Expectations
10-May / Economics / US Monetary Policy Spillovers to the Euro Area
11-May / Economics / Relative Price Shocks and Inequality: Evidence from Italy
12-May / Economics / Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data
13-May / Trading / FlowHFT: Flow Policy Induced Optimal High-Frequency Trading under Diverse Market Conditions
14-May / Machine Learning / Forecasting Intraday Volume in Equity Markets with Machine Learning
15-May / Machine Learning / Revealing economic facts: LLMs know more than they say
16-May / Machine Learning / Augmenting the availability of historical GDP per capita estimates through machine learning
17-May / Fixed Income / Investors as a liquidity backstop in corporate bond markets
18-May / Machine Learning / Foundation Time-Series AI Model for Realized Volatility Forecasting
19-May / Economics / The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge
20-May / Economics / Data Dependency, Inflation Projections and Interest Rate Decisions
21-May / Economics / Nowcasting Italian Industrial Production: The Predictive Role of Lubricant Oils
22-May / Cryptocurrencies / Cryptocurrencies in the Balance Sheet: Insights from (Micro)Strategy — Bitcoin Interactions
23-May / Economics / Optimising the decision threshold in a weighted voting system: The case of the IMF’s Board of Governors
24-May / Economics / Machine Learning in GDP Nowcasting: From Lagging Indicators to Leading Algorithms
25-May / Trading / Risk-averse Dealers in a Risk-free Market – The Role of Trading Desk Risk Limits
26-May / Economics / The Rise and Retreat of US Inflation
27-May / Economics / Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?
28-May / Machine Learning / Hybrid Models for Financial Forecasting: Combining Econometric, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Models
29-May / Economics / Rating the Raters. A Central Bank Perspective
30-May / Economics / Forecasting Residential Heating and Electricity Demand with Scalable, High-Resolution, Open-Source Models
31-May / Machine Learning / Classifying and Clustering Trading Agents
01-Jun / Machine Learning / How do managers’ non-responses during earnings calls affect analyst forecasts
02-Jun / Economics / Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk
03-Jun / Machine Learning / Attribution-Based Residual Decomposition and Overfitting Detection in Linear Regression
04-Jun / Economics / The 2025 U.S. Debt Limit Through the Lens of Financial Markets
05-Jun / Economics / A KISS for Central Bank Communication in Times of High Inflation
06-Jun / Economics / Central Bank Communication with Public: Bank of England and Twitter (X)
07-Jun / Economics / Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting?
08-Jun / Economics / The Hype Index: an NLP-driven Measure of Market News Attention
09-Jun / Economics / Global Banks’ Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Supply
10-Jun / Economics / Inflation Tolerance Bands and Private Sector Beliefs
11-Jun / Machine Learning / Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
12-Jun / Machine Learning / A Framework for Real-Time Modeling and Forecasting of Large Unbalanced Option Implied Volatility Surfaces
13-Jun / Economics / Measuring Communication Quality of Interest Rate Announcements
14-Jun / Economics / TrendFolios: A Portfolio Construction Framework for Utilizing Momentum and Trend-Following In a Multi-Asset Portfolio
15-Jun / Cryptocurrencies / Price Discovery in Cryptocurrency Markets
16-Jun / Economics / From Text to Quantified Insights
17-Jun / Trading / The Science and Practice of Trend-following Systems
18-Jun / FX / Dynamic Currency Mispricing and Arbitrage Profits
19-Jun / Economics / When the Fog Clears: The Effect of Reduced Inflation Uncertainty on Households’ Financial Behaviour
20-Jun / Machine Learning / Identifying economic narratives in large text corpora — An integrated approach using Large Language Models
21-Jun / Economics / How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets
22-Jun / Economics / Changing Jobs to Fight Inflation: Labor Market Reactions to Inflationary Shocks
23-Jun / Economics / Black Swans and Financial Stability: A Framework for Building Resilience
24-Jun / Economics / A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area
25-Jun / Trading / Causal Interventions in Bond Multi-Dealer-to-Client Platforms
26-Jun / Economics / How High Does High Frequency Need to Be? A Comparison of Daily and Intradaily Monetary Policy Surprises
27-Jun / Economics / Suspense and Surprise in European Football
28-Jun / Trading / On the hidden costs of passive investing
29-Jun / Economics / LLMs Vs. Econometric Models for Nowcasting GDP Growth: A Practitioner’s View
30-Jun / Economics / The Pass-through to Inflation of Gas Price Shocks
01-Jul / FX / International Currency Dominance
02-Jul / Economics / A dynamic network analysis of the italian Consumer Price Index
03-Jul / Economics / Can We Reliably Predict the Fed’s Next Move? A Multi-Modal Approach to U.S. Monetary Policy Forecasting
04-Jul / Machine Learning / Enhancing GDP Nowcasts with ChatGPT: A Novel Application of PMI News Releases
05-Jul / Economics / The Central Bank’s Balance Sheet and Treasury Market Disruptions
06-Jul / Economics / Inflation and Floating-Rate Loans: Evidence from the Euro-Area
07-Jul / Machine Learning / Forecasting Labor Markets with LSTNet: A Multi-Scale Deep Learning Approach
08-Jul / Economics / Forecasting U.S. Economic Activity with a Small Information Set
09-Jul / Economics / The two faces of inflation: Classifying high- and low-inflation regimes based on a century of data
10-Jul / Economics / The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium‑Term Risk
11-Jul / Trading / Does Overnight News Explain Overnight Returns?
12-Jul / Machine Learning / Reinforcement Learning for Trade Execution with Market Impact
13-Jul / Economics / Total Recall? Evaluating the Macroeconomic Knowledge of Large Language Models
14-Jul / Economics / Gauging the Sentiment of Federal Open Market Committee Communications through the Eyes of the Financial Press
15-Jul / Economics / Soft Landing or Stagnation? A Framework for Estimating the Probabilities of Macro Scenarios
16-Jul / Economics / Personal Inflation Rates in the Euro Area
17-Jul / Economics / Global Commodity Inflation Pass-Through
18-Jul / Machine Learning / Kernel Learning for Mean-Variance Trading Strategies
19-Jul / Machine Learning / Generative AI at the Crossroads: Light Bulb, Dynamo, or Microscope?
20-Jul / Trading / Trading Costs v. Indicative Liquidity in the Off-the-Run Treasury Market
21-Jul / Cryptocurrencies / Decrypting Crypto
22-Jul / Economics / Global Commodity Inflation Pass-Through
23-Jul / Economics / Relative Price and Pure Inflation: Distribution-Based Estimates for US and Switzerland
24-Jul / Economics / How Do Remittances Affect the Real Exchange Rate? An Empirical Investigation
25-Jul / Economics / Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations
26-Jul / Trading / FinDPO: Financial Sentiment Analysis for Algorithmic Trading through Preference Optimization of LLMs
27-Jul / Machine Learning / Re-evaluating Short- and Long-Term Trend Factors in CTA Replication: A Bayesian Graphical Approach
28-Jul / FX / The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition
29-Jul / Economics / Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets
30-Jul / Economics / Details Matter: Loan Pricing and Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
31-Jul / Machine Learning / Your AI, Not Your View: The Bias of LLMs in Investment Analysis
01-Aug / FX / FX Interventions and Capital-Constrained Banks: Evidence from USD/ILS Spot, Forward, and Option Markets
02-Aug / Economics / Managing the risks of inflation expectation de-anchoring
03-Aug / Economics / Tariffs across the supply chain
04-Aug / Economics / Swap Line Dollar Supply
05-Aug / Machine Learning / Language Model Guided Reinforcement Learning in Quantitative Trading
06-Aug / Economics / When is Less More? Bank Arrangements for Liquidity vs Central Bank Support
07-Aug / Machine Learning / Kronos: A Foundation Model for the Language of Financial Markets
08-Aug / Machine Learning / Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Pakistan
09-Aug / Economics / Breaking Parity
10-Aug / Economics / Seeds of Inflation: Macro Modelling of Nature-Related Risks through Agricultural Prices
11-Aug / Machine Learning / CLARA and CARLSON: Combination of Ensemble and Neural Network Machine Learning Methods for GDP Forecasting
12-Aug / Economics / Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation Investment
13-Aug / Machine Learning / Breaking the Trend: How to Avoid Cherry-Picked Signals
14-Aug / Economics / The shape of economics before and after the financial crisis
15-Aug / Machine Learning / AlphaAgents: Large Language Model based Multi-Agents for Equity Portfolio Constructions
16-Aug / Machine Learning / CATNet: A geometric deep learning approach for CAT bond spread prediction in the primary market
17-Aug / Machine Learning / Marketron Through the Looking Glass: From Equity Dynamics to Option Pricing in Incomplete Markets
18-Aug / Economics / Supply Shocks and Inflation: Timely Insights from Financial Markets
19-Aug / Economics / From Beliefs to Prices: Analyzing How Inflation Expectations Affect the Inflation Distribution
20-Aug / Machine Learning / Interpreting the Interpreter: Can We Model post-ECB Conferences Volatility with LLM Agents?
21-Aug / Economics / Rethinking Inflation Inequality: Evidence from National Accounts
22-Aug / Economics / Inflation Factors
23-Aug / Economics / ECB Interest Rate Forecasting under High Inflation Pressures
24-Aug / Machine Learning / Investment Portfolio Optimization Based on Modern Portfolio Theory and Deep Learning Models
25-Aug / Economics / Inflation since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges
26-Aug / Economics / Global Inflation, Regional Factors
27-Aug / Machine Learning / Combining a Large Pool of Forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall
28-Aug / Machine Learning / FinCast: A Foundation Model for Financial Time-Series Forecasting
29-Aug / Economics / How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence From the Pandemic Era in Europe
30-Aug / Economics / VAT Rate Shocks and Inflation: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis for Greece
31-Aug / Cryptocurrencies / Tariffs, Stablecoins, and the Demand for Dollars
01-Sep / Economics / House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data
02-Sep / Economics / Expected versus Unexpected Inflation: The Role of Trade Policy
03-Sep / Machine Learning / Is All the Information in the Price? LLM Embeddings versus the EMH in Stock Clustering
04-Sep / Machine Learning / Opening the black box of local projections
05-Sep / Economics / Central bank communication with non-experts: insights from a randomized field experiment
06-Sep / Economics / Business Cycles with Pricing Cascades
07-Sep / Machine Learning / Topic Identification in LLM Input-Output Pairs through the Lens of Information Bottleneck
08-Sep / Machine Learning / NoLBERT: A No Lookahead(back) Foundational Language Model for Empirical Research
09-Sep / Cryptocurrencies / Non-Linear and Meta-Stable Dynamics in Financial Markets: Evidence from High Frequency Crypto Currency Market Makers
10-Sep / Machine Learning / Directional Price Forecasting in the Continuous Intraday Market under Consideration of Neighboring Products and Limit Order Books
11-Sep / Machine Learning / Painting the market: generative diffusion models for financial limit order book simulation and forecasting
12-Sep / Trading / Competition and Incentives in a Shared Order Book
13-Sep / Economics / Banks’ Inflation Expectations and Credit Allocation: the Fisher Effect
14-Sep / FX / Payment Frictions, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates
15-Sep / Economics / An Economic Framework to Nowcast Low-Frequency Data
16-Sep / Cryptocurrencies / Adaptive Temporal Fusion Transformers for Cryptocurrency Price Prediction
17-Sep / Machine Learning / DeltaHedge: A Multi-Agent Framework for Portfolio Options Optimization
18-Sep / Economics / The Causal Effect of Inflation on Financial Stability, Evidence From History
19-Sep / Economics / The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements
20-Sep / Cryptocurrencies / Central bank money as a catalyst for fungibility: the case of stablecoins
21-Sep / FX / Flight to Safety or Flight from Carry?
22-Sep / Economics / The (Short-Term) Effects of Large Language Models on Unemployment and Earnings
23-Sep / Economics / The Effects of Monetary Policy on Banks and Non-banks in Times of Stress
24-Sep / Machine Learning / Predicting Credit Spreads and Ratings with Machine Learning: The Role of Non-Financial Data
25-Sep / Machine Learning / Multimodal Language Models with Modality-Specific Experts for Financial Forecasting from Interleaved Sequences of Text and Time Series
26-Sep / Machine Learning / Fair Volatility: A Framework for Reconceptualizing Financial Risk
27-Sep / Economics / What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?
28-Sep / Economics / The ECB-Multi Country Model. A semi-structural model for forecasting and policy analysis for the largest euro area countries
29-Sep / Economics / Monetary Policy, Uncertainty, and Communications
30-Sep / Economics / Implications of Inflation Dynamics for Monetary Policy Strategies
01-Oct / Machine Learning / The AI Productivity Index (APEX)
02-Oct / Economics / How do Rising Temperatures Affect Inflation Expectations?
03-Oct / Economics / Foreign Exchange Rate Dynamics under Regime Uncertainty
04-Oct / Economics / Foreign demand for safety and macroeconomic instability
05-Oct / Economics / Does FOMC Tone Really Matter? Statistical Evidence from Spectral Graph Network Analysis
06-Oct / FX / De-Dollarization? Diversification? Exploring Central Bank Gold Purchases and the Dollar’s Role in International Reserves
07-Oct / Machine Learning / Panel regression for the GDP of the Central and Eastern European countries using time-varying coefficients
08-Oct / Economics / The State of AI Competition in Advanced Economies
09-Oct / Economics / Music as an Asset Class
10-Oct / Economics / A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations
11-Oct / FX / Exchange for Growth: Currency Dynamics in Emerging Markets
12-Oct / Machine Learning / Inducing State Anxiety in LLM Agents Reproduces Human-Like Biases in Consumer Decision-Making
13-Oct / Machine Learning / Can LLMs Improve Sanctions Screening in the Financial System? Evidence from a Fuzzy Matching Assessment
14-Oct / Machine Learning / (Non-Parametric) Bootstrap Robust Optimization for Portfolios and Trading Strategies
15-Oct / Machine Learning / Integrating Large Language Models and Reinforcement Learning for Sentiment-Driven Quantitative Trading
16-Oct / Economics / Decomposing US Economic Fluctuations: A Trend-cycle Approach
17-Oct / Economics / Measuring Attention when Forecasts are Rounded
18-Oct / Economics / The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!
19-Oct / Cryptocurrencies /
Cryptocurrency as an Investable Asset Class: Coming of Age
20-Oct / Trading / Beyond Returns: A Candlestick-Based Approach to Spot Covariance Estimation
21-Oct / Economics / On Model Aggregation and Forecast Combination
22-Oct / Economics / The Price of Delay: Supply Chain Disruptions and Pricing Dynamics
23-Oct / Machine Learning / Comparing LLMs for Sentiment Analysis in Financial Market News
24-Oct / Machine Learning / Topology of Currencies: Persistent Homology for FX Co-movements: A Comparative Clustering Study
25-Oct / Economics / Monetary Policy, Uncertainty, and Communications
26-Oct / Machine Learning / Fusing Narrative Semantics for Financial Volatility Forecasting
27-Oct / Machine Learning / Aligning Multilingual News for Stock Return Prediction
28-Oct / Machine Learning / Jump risk premia in the presence of clustered jumps
29-Oct / Machine Learning / FinCARE: Financial Causal Analysis with Reasoning and Evidence
30-Oct / Economics / The Demand for Economic Narratives
31-Oct / Economics / Food Prices: Developments and Outlook
01-Nov / Machine Learning / ChatGPT in Systematic Investing – Enhancing Risk-Adjusted Returns with LLMs
02-Nov / Economics / Implicit quantile preferences of the Fed and the Taylor rule
03-Nov / Economics / At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction
04-Nov / Machine Learning / Monetary Policy Schocks: A New Hope — Large Language Models and Central Bank Communication
05-Nov / Machine Learning / Causal Regime Detection in Energy Markets With Augmented Time Series Structural Causal Models
06-Nov / Machine Learning / Measuring economic outlook in the news timely and efficiently
07-Nov / Machine Learning / JaxMARL-HFT: GPU-Accelerated Large-Scale Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for High-Frequency Trading
08-Nov / Cryptocurrencies / Technical Analysis Meets Machine Learning: Bitcoin Evidence
09-Nov / Economics / The Beige Book’s Value for Forecasting Recessions
10-Nov / FX / Economic uncertainty and exchange rates linkage revisited: modelling tail dependence with high frequency data
11-Nov / Fixed Income / What 200 Years of Data Tell Us About the Predictive Variance of Long-Term Bonds
12-Nov / Machine Learning / Forecasting implied volatility surface with generative diffusion models
13-Nov / Machine Learning / The LLM Pro Finance Suite: Multilingual Large Language Models for Financial Applications
14-Nov / Economics / From Servers to Rates
15-Nov / Economics / Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment
16-Nov / Economics / How might artificial intelligence affect Texas’ good jobs?
17-Nov / Machine Learning / Reasoning on Time-Series for Financial Technical Analysis
18-Nov / Economics / Central Bank Access and Flight to Safety
19-Nov / Economics / Dancing in the Dark: Sentiment Shocks and Economic Activity
20-Nov / Economics / A New Proposal For Forecasting Inflation In The Eurozone. A Global Model
21-Nov / FX / The value of trading relationships in FX derivatives: evidence from Credit Suisse’s collapse
22-Nov / Machine Learning / Financial Information Theory
23-Nov / Economics / A Millennium of UK Business Cycles: Insights from Structural VAR Analysis
24-Nov / Economics / One Fed, Many Voices: Coordinated Communication vs. Transparent Debate
25-Nov / Machine Learning / Narratives to Numbers: Large Language Models and Economic Policy Uncertainty
26-Nov / Machine Learning / Re(Visiting) Time Series Foundation Models in Finance
27-Nov / Economics / The Macroeconomics of Media Slant
28-Nov / FX / Large Moves in the Foreign Exchange Market
29-Nov / Economics / Retail inventories and inflation dynamics: The price margin channel
30-Nov / Economics / Credit-Market Sentiment: Estimation and Macroeconomic Implications
01-Dec / Machine Learning / More Is More: Leveraging Missing Data in Commercial Real Estate with Machine Learning
02-Dec / Economics / Inflation narratives and expectations
03-Dec / Economics / The Predictability of Global Monetary Policy Surprises
04-Dec / FX / FX Market Making with Internal Liquidity
05-Dec / Economics / When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News
06-Dec / Machine Learning / Semantic Faithfulness and Entropy Production Measures to Tame Your LLM Demons and Manage Hallucinations
07-Dec / Machine Learning / Beyond Automation: Redesigning Jobs with LLMs to Enhance Productivity
08-Dec / FX / Exchange Rate Regime Flexibility and Firms’ Employment
09-Dec / Machine Learning / Probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting using generative machine learning
10-Dec / Economics / Default and Interest Rate Shocks: Renegotiation Matters
11-Dec / Economics / Dispersion of the CPI across US Cities: The Role of Housing Components in Recent Decades
12-Dec / Economics / Trade Policy Surprises and U.S. Convenience Yields: Evidence from Prediction Markets
13-Dec / Economics / Trading Volume and Monetary Policy Surprises
14-Dec / Machine Learning / November 2025 Special Report on AI/ML in Commodities
15-Dec / Economics / Higher Tariffs Might Have Created Headwinds to Employment Growth in 2025
16-Dec / Economics / Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database
17-Dec / Economics / Impacts of Communication and Dot Plots on Interest Rates: the Case of Korea
18-Dec / Economics / Monitoring and Forecasting Food prices in the Euro Area
19-Dec / Economics / A simple measure of monetary policy transmission
20-Dec / Machine Learning / Modelling financial time series with quantum field theory
21-Dec / Economics / Are the Bank of Korea’s Inflation Forecasts Biased Toward the Target?
22-Dec / Economics / BLS Payroll Revisions: Forecasting Recessions
23-Dec / Machine Learning / FedSight AI: Multi-Agent System Architecture for Federal Funds Target Rate Prediction
24-Dec / Economics / Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest?
25-Dec / Machine Learning / Structured Event Representation and Stock Return Predictability
26-Dec / Machine Learning / GIFfluence: A Visual Approach to Investor Sentiment and the Stock Market
27-Dec / FX / Optimal FX Interventions with Limited Reserves
28-Dec / Economics / Credit-Market Sentiment: Estimation and Macroeconomic Implications
29-Dec / Fixed Income / Dollarization Waves: New Evidence from a Comprehensive International Bond Database
30-Dec / Machine Learning / EcoFinBench – a natural language processing benchmark for economics and finance
31-Dec / Machine Learning / LLM on a Budget: Active Knowledge Distillation for Efficient Classification of Large Text Corpora*