To gauge how markets are pricing the durability of the current US-Iran ceasefire, we aggregated conflict resolution probabilities across four prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus, and Manifold Markets), encompassing over $470 million in total...
Late last night (April 7, 2026), the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire to allow for diplomacy. During this time, Iran has agreed to coordinate the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. News of the ceasefire pushed Brent Crude futures back down to...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 has triggered the largest physical supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent rose from roughly $69 per barrel in February to a peak of $126, before...
A decade ago, I liked burgers, and a decade on, well, I still like burgers. However, one thing that has changed greatly has been the alternative data market. What was once an idea which was very niche for major quant funds and a small number of discretionary firms has...
Spain headline CPI YoY jumped sharply to 3.3% YoY in March 2026 from 2.3% in February entirely on the back of energy price reversals linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption. The market had priced in an even larger shock with consensus standing...
Across the Asia-Pacific, policymakers are throwing subsidies, tax cuts, reserve releases, and pricing controls at rising fuel costs in an attempt to delay or smooth an external energy shock from becoming a broader inflation problem (Figure 1). But that strategy is...
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