Since taking office, President Trump has aggressively worked to revitalize domestic manufacturing by focusing on the U.S. trade balance. A key part of this strategy has been threatening tariffs on countries like Canada and Mexico, which he accuses of unfair trade...
Let’s say you are the world’s best burger chef (we all have ambitions, right). You’d be serving up all manner of burgers for your customers. It would be odd though, wouldn’t it, if you never actually ate any of the burgers to test the quality....
When we forecast inflation, our goal is to account for as much explainable variation as possible, using available data and reasonable assumptions about how prices evolve. Indicators like softening unemployment or falling industrial production typically signal weaker...
This article marks the start of Turnleaf’s series on how U.S. tariffs shape inflation dynamics across Latin America (LATAM). Among the economies we monitor—Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile—most have witnessed upward shifts in their inflation trajectories. Mexico,...
The trajectory of Chinese inflation will largely depend on its sensitivity to U.S. tariffs and its ability to sustain domestic GDP growth through external demand, particularly from key partners like Germany. While U.S. tariffs on China present a challenge, our models...
Between mid-December 2024 and mid-February 2025, the Canadian government implemented a GST/HST tax holiday, exempting beverages, restaurants, children’s clothing and footwear, children’s diapers, children car seats, children’s toys, jigsaw puzzles, video...
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