The October–November 2025 CPI sequence contained meaningful measurement distortions linked to the federal government shutdown. BLS has since confirmed that most CPI operations were suspended from October 1 through November 12, including data collection, and that...
Turnleaf expects Colombia CPI to accelerate towards 6% YoY starting January 2026 following a 23.7% minimum wage increase that took effect on January 1—a significant upward revision from our Jan 2, 2025 forecast. Our initial projection applied conservative assumptions...
Over the past year, global disinflation efforts have been complicated by escalating trade tensions that slowed global growth, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine that induced volatility in commodity prices, and widespread political instability driven...
I tweet a lot (from @saeedamenfx and at BlueSky at @saeedamenfx.bsky.social)! In amongst the tweets about burgers, I tweet out a quant paper or link every day under the hashtag of #QuantLinkDay, mostly around FX, rates, economics, machine learning etc. Some are...
The October and November 2025 CPI prints were materially affected by technical distortions related to the federal government shutdown. These distortions are likely to produce a period of temporary normalization in measured inflation over the coming months. The effect...
US CPI YoY NSA came in at 2.7%, significantly below consensus expectations (3.1%) and our own model forecast (3.0%). Core CPI YoY NSA also printed weaker at 2.6% versus market expectations. The 40 basis point miss represents one of the largest negative surprises in...
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