Empowering successful strategies for investing and trading
Machine learning and alternative data driven macro and inflation models that consistently outperform traditional statistical and economists’ forecasts. This approach allows earlier forecast delivery with a lower error rate, improving signals for market participants.
Finding An Edge Wherever Possible
Our Turnleaf Forecaster models are constantly training and improving, in order to be able to capture the complex relationships underpinning today’s economic landscape. We make use of both traditional and alternative data in order to train our models and allow us to provide our clients with the most accurate forecasts.
Macroeconomic forecasting
We provide forecasts for a set of macroeconomic variables, including Inflation and GDP, up 12 months in the future, by leveraging a wide array of macro-economic indicators and alternative data.
Intelligent Forecasting
Sometimes the relationships between market and economic variables can be very complex. We use machine learning to model these relationships in a more cohesive manner.
Media Volume Dashboards
Focus on emerging and developed markets
We focus on emerging and developed markets, allowing our clients to find value in places where other people can’t.
Monthly and Weekly forecasts for select markets
We update our forecasts monthly, and weekly for major economies (US, Eurozone, UK)
Inter-disciplinary Approach
Our approach combines our expertise in the intersection of financial markets, diverse datasets and quantitative techniques.
Remove Uncertainty
Our powerful models give you everything you need in order to remove the guesswork from determining immediate market conditions.
Stay ahead of the competition.
Strategies implementing our forecasts have been back-tested and shown to increase trading revenue.
Get a global perspective on the inflation landscape
Reduce uncertainty and minimise risk.
Always stay up to date.
Find new opportunities.
Variables Taken Into Account
Inflation forecasted
%
Accuracy in beating the benchmark
Countries, accounting for 90% of global GDP
Tracked Forecasts since May 2022
%
Mean Absolute Error, compared to 1.05% for the Benchmark, as of 31st of July 2024
Variables Taken Into Account
Inflation forecasted
%
Accuracy in beating the benchmark
Countries, accounting for 90% of global GDP
Tracked Forecasts since May 2022
%
Mean Absolute Error, compared to 1.05% for the Benchmark, as of 31st of July 2024
Interested In Our Forecasts ?
We are always eager to speak with people interested in our products, be they potential clients or business partners.
How It Works
Intelligent forecasting for the Big Data age.
What type of data we use
We make use of vast data sources of quantitative and alternative data, in order to bring the performance of our models into the Big Data Age.
Geopolitical
- Geopolitical risk news
- World trade uncertainty, etc.
Labour
- Online job adverts
- Slack labour statistics, etc.
Output, Production, Business Activity
- Air pollutants & air quality & rainfall
- Electricity consumption & shortages
- Factory capacity utilization
- Oil rig counts
- Natural resources stock levels (incl. injections & withdrawals), etc.
Retail
- Airport arrivals and departures
- Restaurant visits & reservations
- Ground, sea & air traffic
- Entertainment ticket sales
- Overnight stays and expenditures
- Vehicle registrations, etc.
Sentiment & Expectations
- News sentiment on:
- Food
- Energy
- Communications
- Entertainment
- Housing, etc.