Surprise, it’s inflation

Aug 16, 2023

Abstract

Trading macro assets over US CPI releases

In recent years, the US CPI release has impacted a wide array of macro assets. In this paper, we discuss how we can trade a portfolio of macro assets around US CPI. We create short term trading rules over the days of US CPI releases, using short term Turnleaf nowcasts for US CPI YoY NSA. Historically, our trading rule has risk adjusted returns of 0.87 and annualised returns of 1.0% since 2018.

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