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Blog Archive
How can we improve inflation forecasts
Just imagine you ordered a cheeseburger. Then low and behold, a salad is brought to your table. The probability of such a thing happening is not zero, especially in a busy restaurant, mix ups happen. It's happened to all of us. Spare a thought for central banks over...
Hundreds of quant papers from #QuantLinkADay in 2023
I tweet a lot (from @saeedamenfx)! In amongst, the tweets about burgers, I tweet out a quant paper or link every day under the hashtag of #QuantLinkDay, mostly around FX, rates, economics, machine learning etc. Some are directly relevant to what we're doing at...
What can Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger teach quants?
I've been a fan of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger for many years. Indeed, I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve been to Omaha to hear Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger speak at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meetings. It really is a unique event, when it...
Forecasting Inflation: Can Machines Outperform Economists?
On the cusp of a new year, the question top of mind for many governments, businesses and individuals must be “What will economic growth and inflation be in 2024?” After all, 2022-2023 may well be remembered as the years that central banks and economists made major...
Data Insights – Our first high frequency forecast for the United States
We are pleased to announce that we are starting to update our inflation forecasts on a weekly basis. Our first weekly forecast is for the United States, where: our model expects next week’s US CPI YoY NSA print for January to be 6.2% (revised from 6.04% from our last...
Data Insights – What Happened to Eurozone Inflation
Headline inflation for Eurozone was released today (8.5%) and it came as a surprise against the short-term consensus (9%). Our prediction for this reading (8.8%) published one month ago came much closer to the realized inflation figure. The market from yesterday was...